For the first time since Operation Protective Edge ended in the summer of 2014, the Gaza sector is facing a true security test, as the coming weeks are bound to be highly volatile and the situation could easily deteriorate into a wider escalation.
This volatile period starts this Friday, with the mass Hamas-orchestrated march on the Israel-Gaza Strip border, and it is likely to stretch at least two months, culminating in Nakba Day on May 15, which will coincide with Israel's Independence Day, and perhaps continuing into the holy month of Ramadan.
Defense officials predict a variety of problematic events, including attempts by the Palestinians to sabotage the construction of the underground countertunnel barrier near the border. These could easily agitate the situation on the ground, seriously testing the peace and quiet in the area.
Friday's march, while seemingly a tactical event involving the security fence, has strategic ramifications. All it would take is a large number of Palestinian casualties to see Hamas and the IDF trade fire, which in turn could spill over to other sectors.
Israel has no interest in this escalation not only because it would like to see the residents of the border-adjacent communities enjoy their Passover holiday but also because on the eve of the 70th Independence Day celebrations, Israel would prefer to avoid being dragged into another military campaign in Gaza, especially when a solution to the fundamental troubles plaguing the coastal enclave is nowhere in sight.
Hamas is equally uninterested in a conflict at this time. The march it organized is an attempt to stir public opinion into action in an effort to lift the decadelong blockade on the Strip.
The terrorist group has charted buses to shuttle protesters to the fence and its operatives have spared no effort to ensure a mass turnout, but Hamas is also aware of the precariousness of the march and it has instructed its security forces to prevent protesters from rushing the fence or clashing with Israeli troops.
Hamas has repeatedly stated that it planned a "peaceful protest" along the border, a pledge the Israeli defense establishment takes with a grain of salt, as it is highly likely that terrorists will try to use the protest as a cover to carry out attacks.
The military has deployed substantial forces to the border and has reinforced troops in the entire southern sector as well as across Judea and Samaria, just in case things get out of hand.
Should violent riots erupt, considered efforts would be made to quell then using snipers, to avoid using crowd control measures that could result in a large number of Palestinian casualties.
Military officials, including IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, were adamant this week that the military would not allow protesters to breach the security fence, saying such incidents would be dealt with forcibly, but one can hope that the commanders of the ground with exercise very careful discretion, so not to play into Hamas' hands and spark a conflagration in the Gaza sector.
With this respect, every soldier near the fence will have a strategic role, as the troops will have the power to determine whether the area's residents will celebrate the Passover Seder in their homes or in bomb shelters, and whether the weeklong holiday will see hikers or security forces flock to the south.
