Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan is asking voters to give him another five years in power ahead of Sunday's presidential and parliamentary elections. Interestingly, in another five years, Turkey will mark the centennial of the establishment of the Turkish republic, which rose from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire. With its establishment nearly 100 years ago, the new republic was meant to be secular and modern, and for years, this was how the country was run, that is until Erdogan took power.
For the past 15 years, Erdogan has led Turkey as both prime minister and president. When Turkey's 55 million citizens take to the polls today, their vote will be fateful for Erdogan. Opinion polls in Turkey are not exactly reliable, so there is no way of knowing whether the Turks will give Erdogan the minimum majority he needs to remain in power. If Erdogan does not garner a majority of the votes, he will have to go through a second round of voting to try to win another term.
The main issue that concerns Turkey's citizens is the economy. An analysis of various economic and social indices does not bode well for Erdogan, who is currently in power thanks to the state of emergency he declared in Turkey in July 2016, in response to the supposed attempted coup to remove him from power. Erdogan's years in office have changed the face of Turkey today: No fewer than 150,000 citizens have been arrested following the coup, and 110,000 government employees have been fired.
The New York Times ran an opinion piece by another presidential candidate, Selahattin Demirtas, a few days ago. Demirtas is the chairman of the Peoples' Democratic Party and he is running for the office of Turkish president – from prison. This minor detail helps to shed light on the authoritarian nature of Erdogan's rule. The line between his government and a dictatorship is very thin.
But Erdogan is a popular leader, so much so he has developed a cult of personality. This is true despite the fact that he doesn't mince words and is no diplomat, characteristics which, along with his devotion to Islam, have helped sink Israel-Turkey ties to a new low.
Assuming Erdogan wins the elections, what kind of leader will he be? According to prominent Turkish paper Hurriyet, things will likely remain the same, at least on the foreign relations front. Turkey's relations with Israel will also remain the same according to the paper's assessment. Although Erdogan is not particularly popular in the international arena, Turkey is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and its military is involved in conflicts in the Middle East. As a result, countries like the U.S. are careful not to cut ties with Ankara.
All of these points indicate that, despite our negative perception of him here in Israel, Erdogan is a strong and charismatic leader. If re-elected, Erdogan will be able to solidify his rule and diminish the influence of parliament. As Turkey prepares to mark 100 years to the founding of the secular republic, Erdogan appears likely to continue his efforts to destroy what remains of Turkish democracy, assuming he wins Sunday's elections.
