The meeting between Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi on Wednesday touched on many things – diplomatic relations, trade agreements, and regional and international issues – but the most important topic of discussion was dealing with the Gaza Strip.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
Both leaders understand that tensions between Israel and Hamas, the terrorist group controlling the Gaza Strip, are bordering new hostilities. Egypt is highly invested in its efforts to broker a ceasefire and it has been partially successful in defusing tensions over recent months, but it seems that it is facing a greater challenge than before.
This stems from various events that are not necessarily connected but nevertheless make Hamas feel pressured to prove itself.
Gaza's rulers are very frustrated over their inability to leverage its attacks on Israel in May, during Operation Guardian of the Walls into actual achievements.
Israel has agreed – partially as a gesture to Cairo ahead of the Bennett-Sissi meeting – to a recent request from Egypt to increase Gaza's fishing zone and the volume of goods allowed into the coastal enclave by land, but the transfer of Qatari cash to Hamas has hit a snag in the form of the Palestinian Authority going back on its promise to funnel the funds.
As always, Hamas' frustration is expressed via violence, as evident by the sporadic rocket fire over the past week.
Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar has no real desire to go to war, so he has so far chosen "soft" violence: incendiary balloons and border riots. Hamas currently contains IAF strikes on its sites in Gaza, but it is uncertain that it will do so over time.
At the same time, Islamic Jihad also wants to seize an opportunity posed by the Gilboa Prison break. For three nights now, the terrorist organization has been firing rockets at Sderot in solidarity with the two fugitives who are still at large and with the struggle of Palestinian prisoners jailed in Israel, whose conditions of incarceration are now expected to be aggravated.
The PIJ in Gaza seeks to deter Israel but at the same time it, too, is careful not to go too far. This police could change in case the remaining two fugitives – both PIJ members – are injured or killed during the manhunt for them.
Israel would be unable to contain such an escalation and may choose to focus its counterterrorism campaign only on Islamic Jihad, as it did during Operation Black Belt in 2019, which followed the elimination of Baha Abu al-Ata, Islamic Jihad's "chief of staff" in Gaza.
Back then, Hamas chose to not to join the fray but its current situation is more complicated and it will find it difficult to restrain its operatives when the reason for an escalation is Palestinian security prisoners.
This is a matter of consensus on the Palestinian street. Sinwar himself is a former prisoner who was released in the 2011 Schalit deal, and he has sworn to do everything to free his friends who are left behind. On the other hand, Hamas would prefer to avoid fresh hostilities, especially as Sinwar knows that he may pay for it with his life.
This is where the Egyptians come in. they will most likely try to find a way to de-escalate the situation. At this time, Israel is refusing to consider any deal that excludes is missing and captives – as evident by the fact that Yaron Blum, special negotiator for hostages and prisoners of war at the Prime Minister's Office, traveled with Bennett to Egypt – but given the current prisoners' crisis, the matter is unlikely to be resolved.
If tensions in the south weren't enough, the West Bank and east Jerusalem have also seen an uptick in terrorist activity in recent days. While a stabbing attack in Jerusalem Monday was thwarted thanks to the vigilance of civilians and the rapid action by the Border Police, it teaches us that tensions are simmering very close to the surface.
Security forces are versed in dealing with similar waves of terrorism in recent years. Like in the past, the solution lies in a combination of intelligence and deterrence, mainly by a massive deployment of forces on the ground.
If the terrorists target soldiers and not civilians, and especially if they fail to kill, it is likely that the current wave will also ebb. This will only happen after the remaining two fugitives are captured, and again - subject to their being taken alive.
It is likely that Israel will also seek to maintain proportionality in its responses in the coming days, so as not to aggravate the situation.
Rocket fire and incendiary balloons from Gaza will be met with IAF strikes, but these will not change the equation. Israel has no interest in escalation, so as to give Cairo the time and the chance to calm the situation down.
Past experience has shown that chances of this happening are slim, and the result is clear.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
