Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is willing to fight Hamas down to the very last Israeli soldier. As much as he loathes Israel and its leaders, he fears Hamas and its leaders much more, because while the former oppose his policies, the latter pose an actual threat to his life.
Abbas would clearly spare no effort to eliminate Hamas leaders. Ideally, he would rather have Israel do his dirty work for him, preferably while being accused of war crimes.
Like many senior Israeli officials, Abbas understands that the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip is nearing disaster. Unemployment is nearly at 50%, Gazans have only a handful of hours of electricity a day, and drinking water is becoming scarce.
The desperation is becoming increasingly reminiscent of the situation in 2014, when Hamas felt it had its back against the wall and started a war. Abbas knows it will not take much to reach a breaking point again, and he is doing his best to get us there.
Abbas recently cut the salaries of Palestinian Authority officials in the Gaza Strip by 50%, and fired thousands more. He has suspended welfare benefits to families in Gaza, generally cut budgets to the coastal enclave, and is again trying to limit the power supply, despite the winter cold, thus exacerbating Gazans' suffering. Perhaps in his cruelest move yet, he has also suspended the delivery of vital medicines to Gaza, including for infants and children, and significantly reduced the funding for medical care for Gazans in Israel.
These inhumane measures are intended to increase the Palestinians' suffering. If Hamas opens fire again, Israel will have no choice but to defend itself. This will be a completely different military campaign, since unlike previous conflicts that ended without a decisive victory, the Israeli public will not tolerate another round of fighting with no clear result.
Chances are that the IDF would not limit itself to airstrikes and a limited ground incursion but, as senior ministers demanded during Operation Protective Edge in 2014, would set out to topple and crush Hamas.
This would be a much larger military campaign that could exact a heavy toll on both Israel and the Palestinians. Israel could potentially be accused of war crimes and Abbas himself would lead the charge, in an attempt to benefit twice: He would be hailed for having dealt Hamas a final blow, and would be revered for defending the Palestinians from the Zionists.
Abbas' vision is to be the sole ruler of the Palestinian people once again and he would like to see Israeli spears drenched in Palestinian blood to get him there.
Can this scenario be avoided? There is no simple answer.
The most logical option is to expand the transfer of essential goods into Gaza, including food and medicine, and to consider opening another crossing that could be connected to the Ashdod Port via trains. At the same time, Israel should increase the power supply to the enclave.
Unfortunately, the Middle East is not always ruled by logic. This is why Hamas dug a terror tunnel under the Kerem Shalom crossing – the only goods crossing into Gaza – thus compromising its operations.
Still, Israel must act immediately to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, if not to prevent the next war, then to provide us with a diplomatic and legal shield if we need one.
Abbas' conduct is not new. He pushes Israel to war only to urge a scathing international review like the now-discredited 2009 Goldstone report into the events of Operation Cast Lead.
But this time, this may spell a nightmare scenario that Israel must prevent. If we are forced to defend ourselves against Hamas, we must do so not to satisfy Abbas, but only to protect Israel's vital interests.
