It's possible we won't be any wiser come April 10, the day after the general election. The two rival blocs could be so neck-and-neck that we will only know the final results when Passover eve rolls around. Either way, we can assume there's more than a small chance that a unity government will emerge in the aftermath of this election.
Supposedly, this scenario will never materialize, because Blue and White and Likud have already said they won't sit in the same government together. But if they fulfill their promises, they will almost certainly have to go back to the voters, which has never happened before in Israel's history. If they adhere to this promise, Netanyahu's opponents won't be able to form a government without Likud and it's hard to believe Likud will forego its leadership role before the attorney general decides to file an indictment against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A right-wing government, reliant upon far-right elements from the Kahana school of thought, will also be nearly impossible to form. Even if Moshe Feiglin capitulates on his demands to legalize marijuana and relocate government ministries to the Temple Mount, it would still be hard for most Likudniks to digest a partnership with him, not to mention Itamar Ben-Gvir and his colleagues from Otzma Yehudit.
From Netanyahu's perspective, a unity government would be somewhat problematic. He has vowed to extend his first invitation to the right-wing parties, hoping this will prevent Likud voters from drifting in their direction. The assumption is that if avowed right-wing voters know in advance that their parties of choice will be part of the coalition, they will be content enough vote for Likud to ensure that Netanyahu is the next prime minister. He will have to play the game; try to establish a right-far-right government and then explain to his constituency that these parties' demands were unreasonable and immanently unfeasible, in order to ask Blue and White to join the coalition after it rescinds its own boycott. In this scenario, Netanyahu will be able to bring aboard some of the right-wing parties, after they will have conceded most of their demands. He will need them as a security blanket in case of a split with Blue and White down the road.
From Gantz's perspective, there's no connection between the obstructionist bloc that will emerge, in the best case from his standpoint, as a result of the election and the coalition that will emerge. There is no Blue and White-led government on the horizon with Labor, Meretz and the Arab parties. For Netanyahu's opponents, the best case scenario is that the obstructionist bloc will only be a conduit to a national unity government, which only Blue and White would ever join. Gantz will turn to Likud, invite it to join a government under his helm and stipulate one primary condition: Netanyahu will only be welcome if he isn't indicted following his hearing or goes to trial and is acquitted.
Even if senior Likud officials view this condition as a reasonable option and won't want to tether their fates to Netanyahu, they won't be able to accept it. There will be discussions, there will be rumors and ultimately Gantz will be left without a partner. He will then need to decide whether to drag the country to another election or propose another condition. Because he hasn't negated outright the possibility of partnering with Netanyahu – unlike his Blue and White allies Yair Lapid and Moshe Ya'alon – he will seek an arrangement whereby Netanyahu is a senior minister until the High Court of Justice makes its decision. This could cause tension within Blue and White, but the opportunity to manage the country could alleviate the sting of such a compromise.
Would a national unity government be capable of making the necessary decisions for the sake of the country? Would it be able to agree on a unified approach to the Trump administration's peace plan? Would it be strong enough to decide to partition the land, the likely backbone of any peace plan? These are the core questions that await us after either side trumpets victory next week.
