The events of the past few days in the Palestinian sphere do not portend good things: The coming months will be particularly tense, and Israel could find itself embroiled in a broad conflict in both Gaza and Judea and Samaria.
The challenges in both arenas are different, albeit linked on a strategic level. Gaza is straining under the weight of its harsh economic situation, which has led to questions about Hamas' strength and its ability to govern. Further testament to these doubts is the recent spate of roadside bombings – which has caught Hamas as equally off guard as Israel – most notably the assassination attempt on Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah, which has reopened the rift between Ramallah and Gaza.
In the wake of the assassination attempt, PA President Mahmoud Abbas is now weighing the option of freezing all funding for water and electricity to Gaza, along with the salaries of Hamas officials. This would assuredly exacerbate the situation in Gaza and amplify criticism of Hamas, which will have to choose between submission and continuing to pursue reconciliation from a position of weakness, or throwing everything out the window in favor of another violent clash with Israel.
Israel now has to up its readiness and alertness along the Gaza border, but it must also make pre-emptive decisions: Will it fund Gaza's energy and water needs in an effort to stave off conflict, and how hard should it hit back for the ongoing string of border bombings. This is a fragile game, the result of which is unclear and depends first and foremost on what happens in the intra-Palestinian arena.
The situation in Gaza will also be affected by events in Judea and Samaria. In this context, the ramming attack in northern Samaria Friday night could be integral; not because of its lethal results or because it was particularly unique – it was a classic lone-wolf attack in which the attacker didn't inform anyone of his intentions – but because it could inspire others and, primarily, because of its timing. Several important dates will be marked over the next two months, creating a potentially combustible sequence of events.
It begins March 30, when Israel begins observing the Passover holiday and the Palestinian Authority marks Land Day (which will also be marked by a mass march on the Gaza border fence). This will be followed by Holocaust Memorial Day, Independence Day and the Palestinians' Nakba Day – when the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv will be transferred to Jerusalem. A week later will mark the beginning of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Simply put, enough players will have ample motivation for carrying out a terrorist attack to ignite the situation on the ground.
Israel will have to intensify its efforts to try maintaining the calm. We can assume that in the coming days reinforcements will be deployed to Judea and Samaria, buttressed by increased efforts on the operational and intelligence gathering fronts to foil attacks. Coordination with PA security forces will also be critical over this period of time: Not only can these forces help stem the tide of terror, most importantly they can prevent mass events with the potential to spark a conflagration.
However, even if all the proper measures are implemented, one isolated incident can render everything moot. This is what happened Friday: A known terrorist with a history of security offenses simply decides to kill soldiers with his car. The initial inquiry tells us the soldiers acted appropriately.
Israel responded to the attack with a series of familiar measures: Relatives of the terrorist were arrested; his home was prepped for demolition; members of his clan were stripped of their work permits. This isn't likely to get the job done; his village, Barta'a, has a reputation for supporting terror, and now decision-makers will have to consider changing the route of the fence running through it to increase its security effectiveness.
