The fifth coronavirus infection wave in Israel, due to the Omicron strain, is a matter no less disturbing politically than epidemiologically. The current government that was formed after two years of instability is having difficulty breathing.
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It seems to have recovered from the virus of never-ending elections but has now fallen ill to political "long COVID." The visible symptom is acute shortness of breath that prompts the government to make a drastic decision and immediately repeal it.
Tracking by the Shin Bet internal security agency and mandating the "green pass" vaccine certificates in malls are just two small examples. Every Knesset member has the power to overrule government decisions.
From Eli Avidar, through Mazen Ghnaim to Abir Kara, every lawmaker can publicly announce which decisions they fancy and which don't, and the government is quick to adapt to each whim.
Then there are the political polls. Unlike Yesh Atid, the future of right-wing parties in the coalition is uncertain.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's Yamina barely crosses the four-seat electoral threshold, and Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope fails to do it altogether. In contrast, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reducing the gaps.
As such, statements by Bennett, who has lost any real authority, have become mere publicity events.
Make no mistake, the Omicron strain is not the cause of the political crisis. It simply provides a glimpse into the current government's underground currents. The weekly fights between Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked and Ra'am over electricity and citizenship are an opportunity to understand the extent to which the coalition estimates its chances of longevity.
Justice Minister Yair Lapid is not immune to this disease either. He needs Yamina and New Hope, for without them his best option is to become opposition leader again. Most political commentators estimate that the rotation between Bennett and Lapid will not occur – and these estimates are the direct result of the current state of affairs.
The situation is completely different for Defense Minister Benny Gantz. Contrary to the uncertain future of fellow coalition members, he may be headed straight toward premiership. The ultra-Orthodox are courting him and Likud has officially offered him the position of prime minister for an entire term.
The most important thing – to overthrow the current government. Polls suggest that neither side will be able to form a government in the next election without Gantz. It seems that the chairman of Blue Hope, a center-right party, is the only one who can go with both the Left and the Right. In the next negotiations, he is expected to demand – and most likely receive – a premiership rotation agreement.
Both Jerusalem and Washington recognize the power of the defense minister. This week Channel 13 News reported that United States President Joe Biden has not been answering Bennett's phone calls for weeks. Gantz is the one who flies to Washington to speak with the US administration on matters relating to Iran.
The demands he presented in the state budget were also accepted without question, even though it involved the controversial matter of billions of shekels that were designated for military pensions. The same is true of the probes Gantz wanted to set up for the submarine affair and the Meron disaster.
The fact that Gantz is in such a favorable position leads to constant suspicion of him by elements in the coalition. Gantz keeps his plans close to his chest, does not rule out any option, and leaves uncertainty around his intentions and flirts with everyone (for example, even though he proposed setting up a commission of inquiry into the submarine affair, he publicly praised Netanyahu publicly.
One cannot know whether Gantz will have the courage to respond to the courtships of Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox, but those who underestimate his power are reading his political map incorrectly.
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