Oded Granot

Oded Granot is a senior Middle East and Arab World commentator.

A necessary wake-up call on the northern border

Although common sense dictates that Iran and Hezbollah should have stood pat until the next US president was decided, the recently discovered roadside bombs indicate otherwise.

 

The explosive devices placed near the border fence on the Golan Heights were a wake-up call for anyone who thought the "war between the wars" in the north had either ended or at the very least been put on hold until a US president was decided.

Indeed, common sense dictates that all the players involved in acts of terror against Israel from the other side of the border, in Syria and Lebanon, chief among them Iran, Hezbollah and Syria, should have stood pat until either Donald Trump or Joe Biden was officially declared the next president.

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Iran, with a suffocating economy and uncontrollable coronavirus, is pinning its hopes on Biden returning to the nuclear deal and is well aware that any provocation or foolhardy military act at this juncture could generate unnecessary risks. If Tehran was ever in need of such a wake-up call, along came the New York Times – reporting Tuesday that Trump considered attacking Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of his term – to drive the point home.

Hezbollah, too, is mired in one of the worst periods in its history, straining under economic sanctions imposed by the Trump administration and up to its neck in a dire political crisis at home, without a national government and a dark cloud of crippling national debt threatening to tear the country apart. Assad in Syria, who is largely dependent on help from Iran and Hezbollah, has his own problems to face.

Regardless, it became clear yet again this week, after IDF forces discovered the explosives on the border, that none of these terrorist players have ceased or paused their activities. Hezbollah, which still hasn't abandoned its desire to avenge Israel for killing its operative near Damascus and just last week launched a drone into its territory, continues to operate two terrorist infrastructures on the Golan Heights. One, which it calls the southern command unit, works out of Syrian army bunkers just a few dozen kilometers from the border; and the other, the Golan file unit, recruits locals for anti-Israel activities and is very possibly involved in placing the explosives devices on Tuesday – as it did three months ago, which ended with an IDF aircraft killing four terrorists.

Iran, too, which doesn't intend to abandon its presence in Syria, hasn't stopped directing and overseeing Hezbollah's terrorist activity against Israel from Syrian soil. Meanwhile, according to the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran is continuing, despite its internal problems, to enrich low-level uranium and has already compiled over two tons. This amount, when enriched at a high level, is enough to manufacture two atomic bombs.

Despite the fact that none of the players involved in the so-called war between wars in Syria and Lebanon, on both sides of the border, doesn't want a military escalation, Israel signaled on Tuesday that it won't ignore bombs on its border or Hezbollah's ongoing efforts, aided by Iran, to establish a second front against it.

On the diplomatic front, it appears Israel will seek to persuade the president-elect of the US not to re-enter a nuclear deal with Iran under conditions that could encourage Tehran to intensify its subversive activities in the Middle East.

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