Not long ago, MK Zeev Elkin (New Hope) told someone he was talking to that he was certain he could bring the Haredim into the "government of change." That wouldn't happen before the new government was sworn in, he added, but a few weeks later, after the dust settled, the Haredim would come. Elkin was so certain of himself and even asked his party to hold two ministerial portfolios for the party that would be joining.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
It makes sense. After all, this really isn't a left-wing government. It is made up of Naftali Bennett, Ayelet Shaked, and Matan Kahana; Gideon Sa'ar – who defines himself as traditional – Benny Gantz, whom the Haredim see as an appropriate partner, and they could even work with Labor. But because of one man, the possibility of the Haredim joining the new government seems like a long shot. That man is Avigdor Lieberman.
The leader of Yisrael Beytenu grabbed the keys to the country. This week, in the negotiating rooms, he was called "the real owner of this government," since he holds the Finance portfolio, the Knesset Finance Committee, and more. Lieberman controls the money tap, and there are number of Haredi issue he will intends to handle. When this is the situation, the Haredim declare war, and go all in.
Haredi rabbis, journalists, and media outlets should "Gevald" this week. The rabbis published opinions. The Haredi politicians, meanwhile, weren't crying out in frustration but thinking clearly and expressing doubt about the government's success, as well as their willingness to do battle in parliament.
"I'm not afraid," MK Yaakov Asher (United Torah Judaism) said this week, speaking with confidence and a smile. "There will be so many fires between them that they won't even get to us. If they do, they'll encounter a 'Guardian of the Walls.' You could say we're preparing for our own 'Guardian of the Walls.'"
MK Yaakov Margi (Shas) isn't too down, either: "What will happen now is what happened in 2003 and in 2013, when they formed governments and excluded us. Those were times of hard decisions, but we came out of them stronger. In general, this government sounds like a lame duck. It will hang on for a year, maybe a little more."
Asher says that Lieberman isn't a danger to the Haredi public: "I'm not afraid of what he'll do. I think that his partners should be afraid. He will make them dance to his every whim, run this government and be celebrated by the media. His unchecked control over the 'faucet' will cause problems for them. He'll school Bennett and Lapid."
Is there any possibility the Haredim might still join later on? Not really. "We have no reserve plan of that kind," Asher says. "Aside from that, we don't believe that this government will hold on for long. It's a government that's built on emotions, on a desire for revenge. There are people whose worldviews are very far apart from each other's."
The alliance between Netanyahu and the Haredim has continued for many years, but given the new reality some have wondered if it might have gone too far.
"We didn't stick to Netanyahu," Asher says. "We stuck to a high-ranking partner, which is the Likud, whose leader is Netanyahu. We feel a shared fate with and thankful for over a million people who are overwhelmingly traditional, who respect the religious, who don't see the Haredim as leeches, parasites, and spreaders of disease."
According to Margi, "We're ready to site in the opposition. We know how to get the work done there. Was it a mistake to stick to Netanyahu? Of course not. That was our line, that's what we promised our voters, we're almost the only party that keeps its promises."
Meanwhile, there is another hot potato that no one is talking about – mandatory conscription for Haredi yeshiva students. For years, a law to regulate the issue has been tossed from the committees that submit it to government that try to pass it to the High Court, which intervenes and cancels it. In the past few years, a non-governmental committee of experts has drafted a conscription bill that the Haredim can live with. The problem was a few small points that needed to be smoothed over, but mostly an image one. The Haredim, who were part of the coalition, couldn't allow themselves to vote for any bill that would ultimately draft Haredim.
The bill didn't pass, and was one of the main reasons why the last actual government fell apart, leading to the first election in a four-election cycle that stretched out over two and a half years.
The law cannot pass if the Haredim are part of the coalition, even though they would be happy if the matter could be brought to a close. It's possible that this time, with Ayelet Shaked, who was involved in drafting the various versions of the bill, they have someone who will do their dirty work for them. If that is the case, we might see a truce in the battles over Haredi conscription, which have burdened Israel's governments for decades.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories
