The US presidential election is replete with what may be fateful repercussions for the State of Israel. Former Vice President Joe Biden, whom I knew well, is clearly a pro-Israel man committed to the strategic alliance between Jerusalem and Washington.
Likewise, California Senator Kamala Harris, with whom l have also worked in the past, is also pro-Israel. She and Biden were among the lone Democratic candidates to oppose efforts to pressure Israel by withholding aid.
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Nevertheless, a Biden administration would challenge Israel on two core issues: The first is a diplomatic process that would see the government shirk US President Donald Trump's "deal of the century" and return to the framework adopted by former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, meaning a two-state solution based upon the 1967 borders and a Palestinian capital in east Jerusalem.
The government would reopen the Palestinian Embassy in Washington, closed by Trump as well as the American Consulate in east Jerusalem, which prior to Trump served as the de-facto US Embassy to the Palestinians. The administration would further renew American aid to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, as well as other Palestinian institutions cut off by Trump. The administration would also revert to opposing Israeli construction in Judea and Samaria, as well as in unified Jerusalem, which it considers to be an "obstacle to peace."
From our perspective, however, it is Biden's stated intention of bringing the US back into the Iran nuclear deal and rolling back sanctions on the Tehran regime that is more problematic. Such a move would spare the Iranian regime from financial ruin and aid Tehran in once again conquering significant portions of the Middle East to be used as outposts against Israel. This would present a real strategic threat.
In contrast, should US President Donald Trump win a second term in office, he will certainly adhere to his current policy, which has been the most pro-Israeli of any American president since the founding of the Jewish State. These are not just gestures, like the transfer of the US Embassy to Jerusalem and the recognition of Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights, but significant steps, like standing with Israel at the UN and other international organizations.
For the first time in history, there has not been one American condemnation of any Israeli military of political activity in the four years of Trump's tenure. Nevertheless, Trump has made no secret of his intentions of entering negotiations with Iran. Should he win re-election, Israel should be prepared for such a scenario.
Regardless of who wins, Israel should voice its interests in and expectations from any new agreement between the US and Iran publicly. We did not do that in 2015, when the Iran nuclear deal was forged, which enabled Obama to cunningly claim that no deal would ever be good enough for Israel.
Likewise, should Trump win re-election, Israel would be wise to not once again squander an excellent opportunity to "take care of" Hamas and Hezbollah, and possibly even Iran, while Israel has Washington's military, political and legal support.
It is in this context that we must ask what will be the fate of the freshly-signed peace accords between Israel and the Arab states. A Biden White House is unlikely to invest as much in the accords as a Trump administration would. This point could prove critical when it comes to Sudan, which is in dire need of American aid.
On the other hand, should the US re-enter the Iran nuclear deal, this would force many Arab states to enter into an overt strategic alliance with Israel and against Iran. We would likely need to be flexible with Arab states not receiving American incentives and to embrace Arab countries that need us when it comes to Iran.
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Regardless who wins, the president will need to handle internal financial, societal, and political crises. And regardless who comes out on top, the US will continue to withdraw from foreign affairs and down an isolationist path. We Israelis will need to do more to stand on our own two feet and defend our vital interests. As a strong and sovereign state, we can.
