Ran Balicer

Prof. Ran Balicer is a member of the Israeli Health Ministry's pandemic response team.

A dry run before winter

Rapid response and quarantine policies are vital, as is the need for more staff in the country's medical labs. But most important of all is that the public behave responsibly.

Last week, we saw another rise in the number of corona cases in Israel, which hit a peak with 144 new cases being diagnosed in a single day. This is worrying, but we need to put it in the proper context. The number of tests being conducted increased significantly, hitting a new local record of 16,000 in a day. This is two to three times the number of tests conducted the previous week, which could partly explain the rise in confirmed cases. But without a doubt, it cannot be the sole explanation for the rise in new cases, and the numbers we are seeing in so many communities raises the concern of more extensive community spread that we are not seeing.

But in addition to the warning signs, last week brought us a few positive developments in terms of our national handling of the coronavirus challenge, and we should take note of them. The first was the health and education ministers deciding on a new policy of "jumping" on every incidence of coronavirus in schools that entails sending all students and staff home and testing them. The policy was made to allow most of the nation's schools to continue operating as usual, while preventing more cases of mass infection like the one we saw at Jerusalem's Gymnasia high school – an event that is still ongoing and looks like it might include the second-tier spread.

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As a result of the Jerusalem incident, in at least one case last week (in Hadera), a suspected coronavirus hotspot was shut down by testing the patient, quarantine, and testing all the students at the school, all in the space of 36 hours. This was proof that the system, when it coordinates, can handle the main challenge of the coronavirus crisis, which is to prevent a mass outbreak.

But the system's ability to handle a number of incidents like these simultaneously is still limited. As other cases appear and more schools join the infection-and-quarantine cycle, the healthcare system faces an unprecedented challenge. Although a month ago or more, there were days that saw over 10,000 tests run, at that time routine health care was still operating on an emergency basis only, and medical laboratory workers could devote all their resources to corona testing. Now that the labs are needed full time for regular medical testing procedures (and even more, to deal with the backlog), there is a limit to what workers can accomplish, even working three shifts and under immense pressure.

There is an immediate need to add staff to the HMO labs and continue with the plan to expand our national ability to conduct more tests if the virus continues to spread. It's not an easy goal – it requires equipment, kits, and more than anything, manpower. But the additional staff is vital if we are going to avoid shutting down all schools and community sites. After more employees are brought in, it will be possible to run more tests on the asymptomatic carriers five days after the initial results are in.

Another positive development is that the plan to protect the elderly is still in place by re-testing a few outbreak sites in retirement homes after initial tests were negative. This has certainly prevented additional infection among patients at the highest risk for complications.

We have to remember that the corona crisis won't be leaving us in the next few months, not by natural immunity and not thanks to a vaccine. The challenge we are facing now are a sort of dry run to improve our capabilities ahead of the challenges the winter will bring. The methods I have mentioned are important but even more important is responsibility on the part of the public – social distancing, masks, hygiene measures, and self-quarantine when symptoms appear. Let us hope that we can maintain all these practices and avoid a major outbreak like the ones other countries are currently seeing. Only through personal responsibility can we live as normal a public life as possible.

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