The bi-weekly military strikes we have seen in recent months, dealing heavy blows to Iran's hostile, anti-Israel military deployments in Iraq and Syria, are imperative to the country's defense. The Middle East in the wake of the Arab spring has been trying to rehabilitate itself and lick its wounds. In an effort to exploit the tumultuous environment, the Iranians have tirelessly sought to forge a new reality by establishing a regional and military presence in the Shiite areas of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This presence, according to the Iranian line of thought, is vital to strengthening the Shiite "diaspora." It still isn't clear why the Shiite "diaspora" in Iraq requires surface-to-surface missiles, or why the extremely negligible Shiite minority in Syria needs armed tactical drones. In Lebanon, this "diaspora" has long since become the dominant majority, doing all that it pleases in the country – almost.
Israel's attacks in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon (reportedly) are drawing entirely predictable threats from Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, dictated by Iran. The attack on the armed drones in Syria and Beirut, allegedly, violated Lebanese sovereignty and Nasrallah, as the self-anointed protector of Lebanon's holy soil, wants to defend the country even if doing so means risking all-out war with Israel. Without question, any and every threat he makes should be heeded and taken seriously by Israel's political and military leaders. It's possible, however, that these threats are in fact a distress signal from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its foreign arm, the Quds Force – sensing they have become increasingly vulnerable, transparent and predictable. Israel's intelligence agencies and air force are proving daily that these forces, cunning as they may be, will be exposed and hit.
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Now, in an attempt to steer Israel's attention away from Syria and Iraq, the Iranians are trying to create a diversion in Lebanon, but the only ones who will pay the price for a clash with the IDF are the Lebanese people themselves. Beirut recently rated ahead of Tel Aviv in terms of nightlife and the country's tourism industry is booming, reaching a decades-long goal of restoring Lebanon's status as a prime tourist destination. It has done this by desperately walking between the raindrops and trying to navigate blatant foreign intervention by the Iranians and Sunni Arab countries.
However, in the multi-layered balance of power in the Middle East, it's hard to ignore what is happening above everyone's head. With Russia on one side and the United States on the other, followed by the rivalry between Turkey and Syria, all the regional players are reverting to past and unresolved patterns of hostilities. The US is purporting to create the impression that the Middle East isn't its top priority, but is still revising and updating its "deal of the century" every week. Russia under Vladimir Putin, where all forms of democratic opposition are swiftly suppressed, is trying to construct a pseudo-Soviet facade in an effort to restore past glories it never deserved in the first place. Turkey, faced with a cold shoulder from Europe and on the verge of economic collapse amid a mass exodus of European tourists and an equally devastating influx of unwanted refugees, is seeking to salvage its honor by taking on a traditional foe – Syria. For its part, Syria is again approaching its neighbors with familiar hubris, under the patronage of Iran and Russia.
Amid the latter countries' apparent military impotence against American-Israeli capabilities, they unleash Nasrallah to bark and threaten to disrupt the quiet on the northern border; a quiet that never entirely existed, at least not from the Lebanese-Syrian side. Israel, which is thoroughly ignoring the regional rivalries of the past, is behaving correctly to preserve its security.
