The political system is in overdrive, headed straight toward a brick wall. Three days before the absolute final deadline, after which the Knesset will officially disperse, it appears nothing can reverse this momentum. In the coming days, we will hear about politicians running around, initiatives, talks and spins, yet ultimately, in all likelihood, it will all amount to one inevitable reality. In March, we will meet yet again at the voting stations.
To begin understanding what is expected to unfold we must remove unreasonable scenarios – which have been suggested over the past 24 hours and will continue to be discussed – from the table. There will not be a direct vote for the prime minister and it wouldn't solve the problem regardless. The hypothetical winner, while becoming prime minister immediately following such a vote, would still lack a transitional government and still need to receive a mandate from the president, or the Knesset, to form the next government. He would be a prime minister without a coalition, without a majority in the Knesset, and incapable of surviving for long. You cannot force the other rival party to enter a unity government if it loses and therefore any candidate who wins would likely be a prime minister on paper only – leading us, again, to another election.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
The formation of a government comprising 61 lawmakers also won't happen. Yuli Edelstein, Gideon Sa'ar and Ahmad Tibi are all irrelevant. The only two players in the arena are Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. They are the only candidates for the premiership and no other runner can acquire the majority needed to overcome this complex reality.
There also won't be a mutiny within the Likud. Even if primaries for leadership of the party are held, Netanyahu will emerge victorious. The media will generate drama, try endorsing the rival candidate as much as possible, and will create the sense that it's anyone's game; but the final outcome is ultimately inescapable. Netanyahu will lead the Likud into the next election, with or without primaries for the head of the party.
Blue and White won't fall apart. Benny Gantz is at his wit's end. If it were up to him, he would sign off today on a national unity government with a rotation at the top. He knows this is almost his only chance of becoming prime minister, now or ever. But Yair Lapid is sitting like a millstone on his neck. This isn't hearsay, Gantz himself has said as much. In private discussions, Gantz says he has decided to revoke a premiership rotation ahead of the next election. Lapid has nowhere to go, he says. If he dismantles Blue and White he will be perceived as having done so not for the sake of the country but for his own personal gain, for the seat of power. Hence he is handcuffed.
According to Gantz, breaking up his partnership with Lapid could give Blue and White another two-three mandates from the "soft Right," meaning that next time the center-left-Arab bloc's 57 mandates could expand to a 61-seat obstructionist bloc against a Netanyahu government. Lapid, says Gantz, cannot resign and take the chance this happens. Gantz has spoken in even harsher terms about Lapid. "Because of him, as of today I won't be prime minister in a few months," he has said.
When everyone talks about the need to prevent the Knesset from dispersing, while mentioning in the next sentence that they are ready for another election campaign, it's easy to understand the actual mood. Election season has already begun. With everyone already believing that the campaigns will launch this weekend, it's no longer feasible to talk and compromise. From this point forward all words and actions will be aimed at the voters.
