No one could have imagined that Ukraine would end up in its current situation, in which it has lost its place in the spotlight of Western priorities and its fate no longer concerns Western political circles, at least not as it did at the beginning of the crisis. This is not surprising, however, as priorities change and the focus of public opinion and political circles shifts according to the developments and consequences of events. The same applies to the attention of the fast-moving and fast-paced media.
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At the recent Munich Security Conference, it became clear that Ukraine has no positive perspective on its war against Russia and therefore the spotlight on this war is largely fading. The most prominent recent development in the war in Ukraine is the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from the city of Avdiivka, one of the strategically significant cities in eastern Ukraine, as it fell completely into the hands of Russian forces.
The striking thing about this withdrawal is that, according to media reports, it degenerated into a rout one day before the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, ordered the evacuation of the city. This points to negative indicators for the situation of the Ukrainian army on the ground.
The situation on the ground also shows that the Ukrainian army has been suffering from a lack of ammunition and equipment for months and that the morale of the troops has deteriorated, which has led to stagnation and then to a deterioration of the situation in favor of the Russian army.
The Russian army has switched from defending the territories it controls to attacking and trying to conquer new Ukrainian territories or retake what the Ukrainian army previously controlled. This means that the course of field operations has changed in favor of the Russian army, which explains the statements of Ukrainian officials that their army is facing difficult field conditions.
At the political level, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has clearly indicated that the Ukrainian authorities have no intention of admitting defeat and giving up the territories they consider to be theirs in the name of restoring peace in the country.
It is interesting that the Ukrainian side mentions the surrender, albeit in the form of rejection and denunciation, essentially hinting at the precarious situation of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield. This has prompted Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebensya, to tell the Security Council that preserving Ukraine as a state is still possible, but to do so it must become neutral and stop posing a threat to Russia.
The indication is also that the situation of the Ukrainian army no longer concerns the American side so much as it is looking for a way to save face or a punching bag to explain what happened in Ukraine. President Biden explained that the reason for the recent defeat of Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka was the delay so far in Congressional approval of the large arms deal his administration had proposed to support the ability of Ukrainian forces to continue the fight and defend their positions.
So, the White House is trying to shift the blame for the failure in Ukraine from President Biden to the GOP, even though support for Ukraine has been ongoing for about two years and has only waned in recent months, specifically since the outbreak of the war in Gaza.
Evidently, the Biden administration is looking to take as little responsibility as possible for the expected failure in Ukraine and work towards a continuation of the fighting, even if only in a defensive and tactical framework, preventing the Ukrainian army from collapsing before the end of the US presidential election. After all, the White House is aware of the catastrophic impact a defeat in Ukraine would have on President Biden's election hopes.
The military failure in Ukraine could have ripple effects for President Biden, who has suffered a series of setbacks throughout his time in office, from the humiliating withdrawal of the US army from Afghanistan to the failed handling of the Gaza crisis and the foundering in several files, chief among them Ukraine, Iran, the deterrence of the Houthi militia and the decline of American influence in several regions of the world, notably Iraq, where US forces have been attacked several times in a row.
Ultimately, Ukraine has become a point of contention between American Democrats and Republicans, and the last resort is to procure American long-range ATACM missiles with a range of 300 km to try to stop the Russian attack and boost the morale of the Ukrainian army. However, the White House's decision to send these missiles to Ukraine could be the final nail in the coffin for Biden's election chances next November, given Russia's furious reaction, especially if Ukraine attacks areas deep in Russia with these missiles.
Biden wants the Ukrainian army to keep fighting, not to win or even to defend the land it controls, but to prevent the surrender and collapse of the field, which would mean a military defeat for which the US president will surely pay the price.
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