The current election campaign is giving many people a sense that, unlike the last three years, there won't be another one on its heels. That this time, things will be different, and not only if Benjamin Netanyahu and the right-wing bloc secure 61 seats. That this time, something will happen that will upset everything and allow the system to put a stable, functioning government in place.
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No one can explain exactly how this will happen. Will the Haredim leave the right-wing bloc? Will there be a revolt in the Likud, or will a party from the other camp give in and join a Netanyahu government? It's not clear, but that doesn't change the sentiment.
This feeling was the main motivation behind the New Hope-Blue and White merger. Of course, there was also the strong sense that New Hope wouldn't make it past the minimum electoral threshold by itself. Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has been walking around for some time feeling like he missed out, that his commitment to his bloc has come at a very high price. He is the only coalition party leader who wasn't promoted, even though he was the only one who could have switched sides.
Gantz forewent the offers for a rotation, despite warnings from the Haredi parties. Not out of any heroic sense of devotion, but because he was afraid of the media. He had already gone over to the other side once, and suffered for it.
But Gantz hasn't shelved his dream of being prime minister. He thinks that this election could bring him the opportunity of his life. While Netanyahu and Lapid will prefer to fight their battles in public, Gantz thinks that the real fight isn't between Lapid and Netanyahu, but rather between himself and Netanyahu. The latter will have one chance to form a 61-mandate government, and if he can't, the ball will go to Gantz.
Gideon Sa'ar sees things the same way. If he wants to be part of a future coalition, he should bet on Gantz, not Lapid. They both saw the strong message coming from Netanyahu's circle these past two weeks, a direct attack on Lapid, saying he will form a government with the Joint Arab List.
On one hand, Netanyahu knows that brutal, extremist attacks are off-putting to the moderate Right, the ones who voted for Yamina and New Hope in the last election. Netanyahu wouldn't waste too much thought on them if he wasn't in critical need of their votes. To win their support, he needs to tone it down and muzzle the people in the Likud who spark antagonism like David Amsalem or Miri Regev.
On the other hand, Netanyahu can pick up other votes, like the people who didn't vote last time around. The way to wake up the apathetic Likudniks is to lay into his rivals, the Left, Lapid, the legal system, the media, and all the rest of the enemies of the Right. The problem is that a campaign tailored to these voters will repel the others, and vice versa.
In the last two weeks, Netanyahu has found the perfect formula – the message that Lapid cannot form a government without the Joint Arab List. There is no need for crude language or superlatives. This is a message that all the studio pundits will have to agree with. Indeed, Lapid cannot form a government without help from the Joint Arab List.
For Netanyahu, the Gantz-Sa'ar merger is a complication. It's a third possibility for a government, without the Joint Arab List.
Right now, as long as Gantz and Sa'ar are polling in the double digits, Gantz's candidacy for prime minister can gain traction in terms of the message to the public. If they poll in the single digits, they'll need to rethink their strategy. We've already had a prime minister with only six mandates, but it wasn't a success that Gantz can point to as an example.
Netanyahu can try to paint the new Gantz-Sa'ar list as part of the Left, and possibly take away a few of its mandates from the right-wing voters Sa'ar brought with him, but the prevailing belief is that he will opt not to send out multiple messages and focus on Yair Lapid.
Still, Gantz has a long way to go before he becomes prime minister. Assuming he isn't tempted to join forces with the Joint Arab List, there are a few conditions that will have to be right before he can execute his plan. First, the Haredim would have to defect from the right-wing bloc. This might be easier for United Torah Judaism, but when it comes to Shas, it's much more complicated.
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The UTJ haredim, particularly those from the Degel Hatorah faction, have already made it clear to Netanyahu that if it's up to them, there will not be a sixth election and that they want a government, with him or without him. At the moment, "without him" looks impossible, but both UTJ and Blue and White think that if Netanyahu fails this time, too, something will shift and the Likud will become restive – or possibly even see a real revolt. Their assessment is that there is a coalition ready, one that includes the Haredi factions and Blue and White, without radical players like Yisrael Beytenu, Ra'am, or the Joint Arab List, and the Likud will share power with Gantz but not Lapid. Therefore, they think, this could change the map.
And if it doesn't, if Netanyahu loses, they think, he will double down on his attempts to reach a plea deal, which could force him to leave politics. If they're wrong, Gantz can forget about being prime minister and then there would be yet another election.
The main motivation of all the parties outside the national camp is still to keep Netanyahu out. If it comes down to forming a patchy, shaky government, another election, or joining a Netanyahu government, they would all opt for one of the first two options. At least, everyone but Ayelet Shaked, whom the "Anyone but Bibi" camp counts as part of Netanyahu's camp.
Contrary to the expectations of an intra-Likud revolt on which Blue and White and UTJ are counting, it seems as if the Likud candidates are sticking even more loyally to their leader. That's how it is before the primaries, when the battle for the top spot was never closer.
Meanwhile, this week Labor members will vote between current party leader Merav Michaeli and party secretary Eran Hermoni, who is much preferred by the old guard. In recent years Hermoni has fought against attempt to change the party's constitution and empty the party institutions of value, and take away any vestiges of democracy. For the most part, he has failed. The traditional party activists see him as a better representative of Labor values, but Michaeli as the one who can bring in the votes.
Unlike Hermoni, Michaeli continues to insist that Labor will not run on a joint ticket with any other left-wing party, despite warnings from senior Meretz officials, who are following the polls with concern. After Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz resigned, Yair Golan appears to be the last players standing, and with all due respect to Golan, despite his venomous attacks against the Right, many in the party still see him as a symbol of the "occupation" and militarism in Israeli society.
The Meretz top brass know their voters, so they are doing everything they can to persuade former party leader Zehava Gal-on to come back and take the wheel. Since she resigned from politics, Gal-on's comments have become harsher, more bitter, but for the Meretz leadership she would still be preferable to a former general.
