Israel, similar to the entire Western world, has a problem on its hands. The rocket fire at northern Israel earlier this week exposed the issues in fighting non-state enemies that operate from areas they don't control (supposedly). Defense Minister Benny Gantz again said Lebanon was responsible for the incident. This sentiment, however, is a relic of the past. In the space once occupied by Lebanon, a sovereign power no longer exists. Informally, at least, large swathes of the country are controlled by Hezbollah, as a proxy of Iran. Where Lebanon once reigned, complete chaos now exists.
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If Israel lays the blame on Lebanon by attacking infrastructure – a power station for instance – to deter the country and pressure it to act against the rocket fire at Israel's northern communities, it will face severe international condemnation. "You attacked a helpless country that also bears no responsibility for what happens on its soil," Israel will be told. On a practical level, such a response won't generate deterrence and will significantly damage Israel's image.
No party claimed responsibility for the rocket fire on Israel, but it's safe to assume we know who pulled the trigger. And yet Israel still hasn't retaliated beyond shelling the launch point. Presumably, the attack was perpetrated by a Palestinian terrorist organization in response to alleged Israeli airstrikes in the Aleppo province of Syria, and was greenlighted by Hezbollah. Perhaps Hezbollah gave the order to begin with and is seeking to create a new equation whereby Israeli airstrikes in Syria are met with rocket fire by an "unruly" organization from Lebanese soil, under the direction of Hezbollah, and without Israel being able to respond.
This is the new Israeli government's first test with the crisis in Lebanon. Openly declaring Hezbollah as the sovereign in Lebanon with sole responsibility for any rocket fire at Israel would henceforth obligate a response and could potentially lead to a conflagration. Failing to respond would mean Israel will face the prospect of rocket fire from Lebanon after any airstrike in Syria.
The Israeli government, it seems, won't have a choice. Accepting the current situation and failing to respond with heavy force against rocket fire from Lebanon will open up a northern front that will restrict Israel's freedom of action in Syria. Hezbollah is the sovereign entity in Lebanon and is doing anything it wants there regardless. Defining the terrorist organization as the sovereign power with direct responsibility for any subsequent rocket fire could create deterrence and will probably prevent future attacks. Such a declaration likely won't lead to an escalation in the Lebanese sector as Hezbollah is holding its cards in the event of an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear program and, for the time being, will avoid a confrontation with Israel that could debilitate it significantly.
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