Throughout the 2015 election, Isaac Herzog, Netanyahu's rival in the race for prime minister, went around laying out his plan for defeating Netanyahu. There was talk of a "psychological gap" between the two big parties, and of complex coalitions stretching from Umm al-Fahm, through Kahlon's periphery voters, to Nokdim, the settlement where Liberman lives. In the end it always came down to Netanyahu realizing he had lost by a wide margin and stepping down. I remember telling Herzog that, in the end, you can't build a battle plan on the belief that the rival judoka will throw himself for the match-ending full point.
Now, in a different role, Herzog will try to turn the half-point scored against Netanyahu not into a match-ending ippon but into an agreed draw. Alone he will struggle to succeed. But he will need the cooperation of the US president. The White House is watching what is happening in Israel and debating whether to jump into the local puddle.
A unity government is not only an Israeli need but critical infrastructure for ensuring stability in the Middle East. It reduces European pressure for sanctions, widens Israel's room for maneuver on a series of fronts, and thereby helps Trump forge broader alliances on his way to reshaping the Middle East and the world together. Broad national consensus would make it much easier to reshape Gaza, to secure good arrangements in Lebanon and Syria, and to move toward peace with Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu won't be enthusiastic and Eisenkot will recoil, but if anyone can do this, it is only Trump. Foreign intervention in internal affairs is problematic, particularly when it is done for the benefit of one side. Here, where the goal is to connect the two central wings of Israeli society, it is a different matter.
Therefore, unity between Netanyahu and Eisenkot is not only a need for the stability of the State of Israel but also for the overall effort of the Middle Eastern war that the US and Israel are in the midst of. With a quick invitation of Netanyahu and Eisenkot to the White House, Trump may be the only one who can close the most important peace deal of the 21st century.
On the other hand
The human psyche is a strange thing. In the September 2019 election, when Netanyahu's bloc fell to 55 seats and Likud to 31, deep mourning settled over Likud. Seven years later, the bloc stands at 53 seats and his party at 27, yet it is hard to wipe the smiles off the faces there. It's all about expectations, of course. At the start of the campaign Liberman promised "63, 64 Zionist seats." Then Eisenkot spoke of "58 Zionist seats" and a minority government. The final week was still marked by talk of a "clear Jewish majority," or 61 together with Ra'am, only to discover that an unprecedented effort ended light-years from even that scenario. And so, for Netanyahu, there are prettier results out there but none he loves more.
The dramatic suspicions that Qatar bought the election bring the possibility of a repeat election very close. Any sensible person who understands anything about elections knows there is no such jump in turnout without a one-time operation of enormous scale, legal or illegal. It cannot be replicated, certainly not with the Shin Bet's eye open this time. In the Change Bloc they suspect Netanyahu is pushing with all his might for a transitional government and new elections. The prime minister's actual state of mind is more precise than that: he is indifferent to whether such elections happen. That is, he has no problem bringing Eisenkot, Bennett or Liberman into the government, but he has no intention of paying them in any hard currency: no state commission of inquiry, no draft law, no removal of Ben Gvir and no justice portfolio. Want to come? Be my guest, like any other partner in the bloc. Eisenkot sees Netanyahu as a danger. Netanyahu sees Eisenkot as a nuisance.
A transitional government is considered a paralyzed creature, without the legal ability to make long-term decisions or appoint senior officeholders. But for Netanyahu it has a big advantage. First, it cannot be toppled. There is no weekly danger of a no-confidence vote, partners cannot pester and threaten, and, most important, you can still make war and still make peace. Those are exactly the issues that matter to him: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gaza, Lebanon.
Luck favored Netanyahu on more than one front. Whether or not the crazy Arab turnout was achieved by kosher means, whoever stood behind it wanted to bring Netanyahu down. In practice, it only helped him survive. This time too, they succeeded too well.
