Covid memories
A deeply human image from a cemetery was at the center of last week's political drama. Yair Lapid arrived at the Memorial Day ceremony at the Herzliya Military Cemetery, where he embraced Gadi Eisenkot, whose son, Gal, is buried there. Originally, another Member of Knesset from Yesh Atid was scheduled to deliver the speech, but a swap was made in the days leading up to the event.
This week of national holidays was also the week the Lapid-Bennett deal was finalized, shaping the landscape of the 2026 election. The "Together" (Yachad) list claimed the details had already been locked down the previous Saturday night in the Opposition Leader's basement. However, sources within the bloc argued that the cemetery photo gave Bennett's camp the sense that they needed to close the deal quickly. They wanted to win the bidding war against Eisenkot—a steep price, but for a highly valuable prize: leading the bloc that currently holds the advantage in most polls.
A day before the announcement, a poll conducted for the Public Broadcasting Corporation's "Kovanovik" program yielded alarming conclusions for both Bennett and Lapid: Bennett received 20 seats, Eisenkot gained another seat to reach 15, and Lapid dropped to just 5. The union was swiftly finalized, the poll was shelved, and the danger to both parties passed.
Therefore, the claim that an exorbitant price was paid for Lapid ignores a basic rule of "mergers and acquisitions": you aren't just buying the asset's value, but also mitigating the risk of them merging with someone else. The agreement's mechanism guarantees Lapid a double-digit number of MKs, regardless of any unification with Eisenkot. The logic was that without securing placements for Yesh Atid members, Lapid's motivation to bring Eisenkot into the fold would diminish. Throw in two or three "Norwegian Law" MKs, and the majority of the faction is set. The rest will be sent off as ambassadors to Minsk.
After years of covering military maneuvers and bombings, it was refreshing to return to pure politics this week: passions, hatreds, and surprises. Still, the election won't be decided in Lapid's basement, but rather in the bunkers of Fordow and the tunnels of southern Lebanon. In Israeli embassies across the West, it is currently common to speak of "Israel Fatigue"—an exhaustion with Israel and its endless presence in the news.
Within Israel, there is War Fatigue. The sour mood among the public, particularly Netanyahu voters, stems from the feeling at the start of Operation "Lion's Roar" that it would be the final round. Instead, they discovered the matter was far from over, compounded by the supposedly closed Lebanese front reopening. "Do they want us to eliminate a 1,400-year-old fundamentalist current in one blow?" the Prime Minister wondered recently. Well, not in one blow, but a solid six months would help.
A similar sentiment characterized the 2021 elections, which coincided with the final COVID-19 lockdown and the vaccination campaign. The public was exhausted from a year of restrictions and found it hard to believe it would ever end. The victim of that fatigue was Netanyahu; voter turnout in his strongholds dropped, and the rest is history. If the feeling of endless fighting persists into October, Bennett will inch closer to the premiership regardless of his campaign's quality. If a significant military achievement is reached, no political union will matter.
Calculated risk
This week, the prediction market site Polymarket raised Bennett's chances of becoming Prime Minister to 40%, roughly tying him with Netanyahu. If I had a million dollars to risk, I would probably diversify and invest equally between the two. But if I had a thousand dollars to go wild with on an "all or nothing" bet, I'd invest it in the person currently given a mere 1% chance: Avigdor Liberman.
A week ago, Liberman announced he would be the next Prime Minister. The declaration was met with a shrug at best, ignored at worst, and ridiculed in the most likely scenario. A rookie mistake. First, the math: the "Together" list is not a single party, but two factions joined together. If the polls are correct, Bennett will have 14-15 MKs at best, and Liberman, at worst, eight or nine. Bennett had fewer seats than Liberman when he demanded the premiership of the "Change Government" from Lapid (who had 17 at the time).
Unlike the Netanyahu bloc, there is no real hierarchy in the opposition. On what grounds will Lapid, Eisenkot, Bennett, and Golan demand that Liberman settle for Finance Minister again—and that's the best-case scenario? What will they tell him if, the day after the elections, he demands the premiership for himself, or else he'll consider other options? Will Bennett tell him it's unacceptable and immoral to lead a country with a single-digit number of seats?
Of course, there is a difference between Liberman in 2026 and Bennett in 2021. The Yisrael Beiteinu chairman isn't currently the tie-breaker between the blocs. His rhetoric against Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox is harsher than any of his partners, and the competition is tough. Ostensibly, he has no choice but to bite his lip and play second or third fiddle in someone else's concert.
That is true, but Liberman has a dilemma. While Bennett once had to choose between a right-wing government or a change government, Liberman seemingly lacks even a single viable option. Some of his closest confidants are convinced he will never again join a coalition relying on the Ra'am party, having been badly burned last time. In other words, he has zero incentive to once again be the silver platter serving up a government supported by Mansour Abbas. The only way to tempt him—if neither the Zionist opposition nor the Netanyahu bloc secures 61 seats—is the grand prize of the Prime Minister's office.
Are the chances of this high? Not particularly. Are they higher than 1%? Absolutely. To me, it sounds like an interesting opportunity for a calculated bet.
The Shaked question
As the gossip columns say: Naftali and Ayelet are no more. The political system's longest-standing duo has ended their partnership. For thirteen years, they were inseparable, moving through five different parties together. But even without an official announcement, it's over. Over the past year, Ayelet Shaked still made the studio rounds defending Bennett. But after he announced the addition of two women—Keren Turner and Liran Avisar Ben-Horin—she fell silent. When he brought on strategic advisor Lior Chorev, who had attacked her for years on Twitter, she remained quiet. And when he formed a party with Lapid, it became perfectly clear the house had fallen apart.
In the last elections, Bennett voted for Shaked's party, "The Jewish Home," which failed to pass the electoral threshold. It was a glorious failure. A failure because she didn't cross the threshold; glorious because 56,000 voters chose her knowing with certainty their vote would be thrown in the trash. As fate would have it, this "seat and a half" is one of the most important factors in the current election cycle.
Polls showing high personal opposition to the former Justice Minister are slightly misleading. The right is furious with her over her role in the Change Government, while the center-left boils over the fact she prevented the passing of the "Defendant's Law" and represented the national camp's interests. But what matters are the mandates in the political center: non-"Anyone But Bibi" change-seekers, non-Bibi right-wingers, politically homeless religious Zionists, and free-market supporters who refuse a government with Arab parties.
The most prominent option of all is teaming up with Liberman. The Bennett-Lapid union cleared a crucial niche for him among precisely these voters, and reserving Shaked as his number two would make it easier for him to capture some of those votes. The two have maintained a good relationship for years.
A new right-wing party is also a possibility. Erdan, Kahlon, Edelstein, The Wives of Reservists Forum—there is no shortage of names. Right now, when it comes to a list that seeks unity and right-wing policies but isn't beholden to the ultra-Orthodox, there is high demand but no real supply.
And there is also a third option, which sounds, admittedly, entirely imaginary: that Netanyahu would reserve a spot for Shaked in the Likud. Yes, the Netanyahu family's historical loathing of Shaked is well-known. But if Shaked were to declare that Bennett is about to form a government with the left and the Arabs, she would be handing Netanyahu a massive gift that no one else can provide. Will Netanyahu be willing to give a gift in return?
Delaying the inevitable
From Netanyahu's perspective, the most important news this week wasn't the opposition's unification, but the President's announcement—via the New York Times—regarding the postponement of a pardon. There was a slight misunderstanding. In English, "ledchot" (לדחות) can mean both postpone and reject. President Herzog, not a man to rush into decisive rulings, meant the former.
As previously written here, the significant window for Herzog will open after the elections, aiming for a comprehensive deal. A former Justice Minister once said it's very hard to appoint one judge to the Supreme Court, but four is easier. Paradoxically, the more that is on the table, the easier it is to satisfy the parties. Herzog is operating similarly. He assumes reaching a compromise on the trial between the Attorney General (the de facto head of the opposition) and Netanyahu will be nearly impossible. But if forming a government and a legal compromise are tossed into the same pot, a viable solution might just emerge.
The risks of waiting are tremendous for all sides. First and foremost, for the President. While Trump hasn't insulted him for about two weeks (he's been a bit busy), it's unclear if he'll continue to settle for mere text messages. And for Netanyahu, a decision now would certainly have been preferable. In a few months, he could be stripped of all the assets that separate him from an ordinary defendant. After all, his pardon request relies on his need to concentrate on fateful security and diplomatic matters as Prime Minister. What happens if he becomes the Leader of the Opposition?
Some are trying to convince Herzog to take his time regardless. If Netanyahu is elected, it will be easier for him to receive a pardon. If he isn't, he will leave politics. Perhaps, but that's exactly what everyone thought in 2021 when he lost to Bennett. Yet here we are, and the end of the trial is still not in sight.
Most importantly, according to most polls, the President is about to face another crash test. If no candidate receives 61 substantial recommendations (a recommendation from a faction like Hadash-Ta'al that won't join a coalition carries no weight), he will have to make a decisive ruling under suboptimal conditions—just like with the pardon. Does he sometimes think it wouldn't have been so bad if Miriam Peretz had won the presidency?
