Eighteen months since the beginning of the war, Iran has recently claimed again that it had no prior knowledge of the October 7 attack. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei denied at the start of the war that Iran had any role in planning the attack. Iranian Vice President Javad Zarif repeated similar statements just this past January. Even outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed toward the end of his tenure that there was no evidence of Iran's involvement in the attack.
However, now, as foreign reports indicate Israel and the US are examining plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center is publishing a series of captured documents that the IDF seized during the war, which paint a completely different picture. These are supported by additional information we bring here: Iran, which tried to distance itself from the massacre, knew that Hamas intended to attack, although the exact date was not coordinated with them. Captured Hamas documents record ongoing communication between Iran and Hamas regarding the attack over several years, especially since Guardian of the Walls (2021) through summer 2023, and even beyond.
On Hamas' side, Yahya Sinwar, Saleh Arouri and Ismail Haniyeh led the meetings and coordination efforts. Facing them, on the Iranian side, was Saeed Izadi, known as Haj Ramadan, head of the Palestine Branch in the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, former deputy head of operations and commander of the Revolutionary Guards ground forces. According to the documents, Izadi informed higher officials in the Iranian leadership about this connection, including Supreme Leader Khamenei. These consist of about 20 documents that have been translated and analyzed, protocols and summaries of meetings that demonstrate a shared understanding between the Iranians and Hamas, after Guardian of the Walls, that the time was ripe to try to destroy Israel, which had become significantly weakened (Dr. Uri Roost, an Middle East expert, performed the analysis and translation of the documents for the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center).
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The exchange of letters and messages also reveals disagreements between Hamas and Hezbollah, and between Hamas and Syria, with the Iranian regime trying to mediate between all parties to achieve a unified front.
According to these documents, Israel has reason to strike Iran, not only because of its nuclear plans and the terrorist activities it directs and organizes against Israel worldwide, but no less importantly, and specifically, because of its clear contribution to the Hamas attack and massacre, and its partnership in discussions leading up to October 7.
Three months before the massacre, according to the findings, in late June 2023, a Hamas delegation led by Ismail Haniyeh (later assassinated by Israel in Iran) and Saleh Arouri (later assassinated by Israel in Lebanon) visited Iran. The delegation held a series of meetings with state leaders there, headed by Supreme Leader Khamenei. According to a summary document of the visit from July 6, written by Hamas' "Department of Arab and Islamic Relations," "Haniyeh emphasized that the Gaza Strip is the 'base of resistance,' and that Hamas is prepared for the new campaign against Israel and will even lead it. According to the protocol, the Iranians expressed support for the resistance capabilities in light of Israel's weakness, and President Ebrahim Raisi (who died in a plane crash in May 2024) even stated that "The resistance has become stronger than ever while Israel is weaker than ever." Revolutionary Guards Commander Hossein Salami says in that same meeting that the Iranians see "signs and possibility of removing Israel from the map."
At the end of that month, Saleh Arouri travels to Tehran and presents Hamas' plans for the invasion of the Gaza border communities to Saeed Izadi. Izadi supports the plan but asks not to share the plans with Hezbollah yet, fearing the organization is exposed to Israeli intelligence surveillance.
Nevertheless, security sources can now reveal that in August and September 2023, meetings were held in Beirut, at a frequency of once every two weeks, where the attack plan against Israel was discussed. These meetings were attended by Saleh Arouri from Hamas, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, Islamic Jihad leader Ziad Nakhala, and Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani. Qaani himself was present at training sessions for hundreds of Hamas operatives held on Iranian soil during September, just weeks before the massacre.
Changing direction
Hamas itself examined three scenarios for "unifying the arenas and deciding to exploit the opportunity." In a letter sent by Sinwar to Haniyeh on June 19, 2022, he outlines a practical strategic scenario for a multi-front confrontation with Israel that would lead to its elimination. At the beginning of the letter, he states that "since the ceasefire in 'Jerusalem Sword' (Guardian of the Walls), our jihad fighters have been preparing rapidly and without restraint. They are confident that their level of readiness for a large strategic campaign, which will change the face of the region and its rules of the game, is almost complete, and that what they have prepared and are ready for is at a sufficient level to begin immediately if necessary under Allah's guidance."
The three scenarios that Hamas examined at that time were:
- The major scenario, which would involve all components of the "Resistance Axis," except Iran. These would attack Israel with the aim of "bringing down the occupation state and ending it..." Yahya Sinwar estimated that this goal was possible, "assuming that Hezbollah has (only) a third of the capabilities they talk about and would participate in the campaign with full force," alongside "reasonable participation from Yemen, Iraq and Syria – the Axis forces and not the states themselves, participation of fedayeen from the Jordanian border, our powerful participation, and igniting the West Bank and the interior (Israeli Arabs)." Sinwar noted that this was Hamas' preferred scenario, and that "The symbols of the campaign should be the Al-Aqsa Mosque and Al-Quds (Jerusalem), as these could cause a nuclear explosion in the entire region." According to the document, the timing should be related to one of the Jewish holidays, with Passover being the preferred one, since during holidays "Jews increase their invasions of Al-Aqsa and their acts of aggression and prayers."
- The second scenario, the intermediate scenario, assumes that Hamas would lead the attack, while Hezbollah would participate partially along with forces from the West Bank and Israeli Arabs. Sinwar assumed that in such a case, Israel would suffer significant damage, many of its citizens would want to emigrate, and the territories of the West Bank and prisoners would be liberated. He noted that this would also lay the foundation for the final elimination of Israel in the future.
- In the third scenario that Sinwar outlined, Hezbollah is not a direct partner, at least not in the first phase, and the main burden falls on Hamas, joined by forces from the "Resistance Axis" and fedayeen from Jordan and Syria. This is the minimum scenario, which Sinwar estimated Hamas could be satisfied with, and it does not require approval from Iran, but only from Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah.
It is now known, based on a Hamas presentation captured by the IDF in the northern Gaza Strip in the first days of the campaign (part of which was published last October in The Washington Post), that the major scenario outlined by Sinwar in his letter to Haniyeh (Scenario 1) included an attack in the style of the "September 11 attacks," against tall towers in Tel Aviv, including the three Azrieli Towers and the Moshe Aviv Tower in Ramat Gan (68 floors). In documents captured alongside this presentation, Sinwar appeals to senior Iranians, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, requesting financial and military support beyond what he had already received, and commits there that with Iranian backing, "he would be able to destroy Israel within two years."
From the analysis of the captured documents, conducted by Dr. Uri Roost for the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, it emerges that the issue of Israel's destruction, which was previously a vision for the future, changed conceptually after Guardian of the Walls (2021), when Hamas developed the recognition that Israel's destruction had become an achievable goal in the near term. Hamas documents captured in the Gaza Strip during Operation Iron Swords, notes Roost, "demonstrate that the public statements, which could have been interpreted as empty boasting before October 7, 2023, were gradually accompanied by the development of a concept regarding the practical feasibility of the plan to destroy Israel, which represented a fundamental change in Hamas' strategy until then."
While, for example, in the document "The Movement's Strategy 2013-2017," the confrontation with Israel is still presented mainly in a defensive sense, against Israeli attacks from the sea and air, and the activation of resistance according to a "realistic" plan, by June 2021 Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and his deputy Marwan Issa were already writing to Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani that the goal is "the great victory and the removal of the cancer" and "the elimination of the entity and its removal from our land and our holy places." They request half a billion dollars for a period of two years for this purpose.
"Ending Israel's existence"
In another letter that the three sent to Iranian leader Khamenei on the same date, they write: "This imaginary entity is weaker than people think. With Allah's help, with your assistance, and with the support of our nation, we are capable of uprooting it and removing it, in the nearest time..."
On July 1, 2022, just two weeks after Sinwar, in a letter to Saeed Izadi, head of the Palestine Branch in the Quds Force, listed the three scenarios for attacking Israel, Ismail Haniyeh updated Sinwar on the content of a secret meeting organized by Izadi with Nasrallah, in which Hamas representatives presented him with the scenarios for the campaign against Israel. According to Haniyeh, Nasrallah expressed support for the first scenario – the major strategic campaign scenario – and noted that it was a realistic scenario: "After a deep and long discussion, the position of the honorable Sayyed (Nasrallah) was clear and firm, whereby he supports the first scenario and believes that the data and circumstances prove that it is a realistic scenario that can be implemented, meaning ending Israel's existence. Saeed Izadi generally supports this, but notes that it is necessary to examine the means and know what the obstacles and challenges are before proceeding with the matter."
"Regarding the (discussed) scenario, the following was agreed:
- Raising the situation before the leader of the revolution in Iran and updating him.
- In light of this, the appropriate authorities are requested to prepare a comprehensive plan that takes into account the factors of strength and weakness; the means, the roles, and the parties that will participate in this."
Haniyeh concludes his update to Sinwar by saying that the first scenario, in which all components of the Resistance Axis (except Iran) would attack Israel, is the one agreed upon by the main players, namely Iran and Hezbollah.
On January 14, 2023, Ismail Haniyeh arrived in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and addressed members of the Hamas Executive Committee that had convened there. Among them were Hamas representatives from Turkey and Gaza. Haniyeh assessed that the conflict with the enemy was approaching a breaking point (infijar). He mentioned the protests within Israel as a factor destabilizing the enemy, and expressed hope that the right-wing government in Israel would bring about an internal explosion within the entity.
Three months later, a conversation took place between Yahya Sinwar and Hamas Political Bureau member Mohammad Nasr. According to the transcript of the conversation, Sinwar made it clear that "the brothers in Gaza have the ability to change the face of the Middle East," and he noted that the Seif al-Quds (Guardian of the Walls) campaign was a "picnic" for the enemy, compared to what is expected in any future campaign.
Then came the visit of the Hamas delegation led by Haniyeh and Arouri (June 19-23, 2023) to Iran, and their meeting there with Khamenei. According to the protocol of this meeting, Hamas was (already) prepared for a new campaign against Israel, and the Iranians expressed support for the resistance capabilities in light of Israel's weakness.
Saeed Izadi, in coordination with his superiors and the supreme leadership in Iran, was therefore the connecting link between Iran and Hamas throughout the journey. The captured documents record a process in which Izadi becomes a central figure in Hamas' decision-making, ahead of the "major campaign" that eventually began on October 7.
"From the documents," as noted by the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center experts, "one can learn about substantial problems that developed over the years in connecting all the factors and building the axis; between supporters of rapprochement with Iran and those opposed to increasing Iranian influence, led by Khaled Mashaal." In one case, the documents reveal how Izadi rebuked Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif for Hamas sharing attack secrets with Zaher Jabarin, a senior Hamas official in Turkey, who he said is a person who "doesn't know how to keep his mouth shut." Izadi was also involved in regulating Hamas activities in southern Lebanon and weaving cooperation, coordination, and resolving disputes between Hamas and Hezbollah there.
Izadi's influence – whom the US designated in 2019 as a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist" – on Hamas' decision-making was manifested, among other things, in his complete control over Hamas' funding, as revealed in the captured documents. "In our assessment," write the center's experts, "Izadi will continue to be a central factor in Iranian attempts to rebuild the Resistance Axis, especially Hamas and Hezbollah... Izadi and the Palestine Branch in the Quds Force," according to the assessment, "will focus on smuggling weapons to Judea and Samaria, financing and attempting to carry out attacks within Israel, including assassination attempts on senior figures, as part of revenge actions due to the harm to the Resistance Axis organizations and the Israeli strike on Iran in October, 2024."
