"Strength and Sword" – that's the name given to the operation that began at 2:00 a.m. with a wave of airstrikes on dozens of terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip: mid-level Hamas commanders, senior officials in Hamas' political wing, and terrorist infrastructure. The timing of the current operation was triggered by Hamas' refusal to accept negotiation terms for the release of hostages, as well as the organization's readiness to carry out attacks against IDF forces and the Israeli home front, and to rearm and strengthen itself.
The operation, approved by the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet over the weekend, was kept under very tight secrecy to surprise Hamas, which is why additional details are not being released and no IDF spokesman statement has been made so far, unlike in the past. Currently, it appears that Israeli Air Force strikes were the first phase, and additional means will be employed later, including extensive ground maneuvers and capturing territory.
The IDF Arabic-language spokesman has already called on residents of Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza and Khuza'a, and Greater and Lesser Abasan in the south, to evacuate to recognized humanitarian zones, which could indicate the directions from which IDF forces will enter the fighting – or perhaps hint at deception and trickery.
At present, there are reasons to be optimistic about the change in approach to returning to fighting in Gaza, but it's also best not to overdo it.
These are favorable conditions for an offensive: despite replenishing its ranks, Hamas is greatly weakened and relies on fighters who aren't particularly professional. Its rocket inventory is sparse and its food supplies are running out. Second, the backing it had from Hezbollah until October – no longer exists. Iran will also not respond in light of United States threats, and the Houthis are busy with developments in the Red Sea. And there is, of course, President Donald Trump, who has also released arms and weapons shipments to Israel, will not demand humanitarian aid be brought into Gaza, and will also act to implement his migration plan.
In recent weeks since the end of Phase 1 of the hostage deal, a ceasefire has continued to exist in practice, with only one side participating. Now it can be said that during this period, Southern Command, the Air Force, and Military Intelligence were engaged in planning the operation, which in its first phase included gathering Hamas targets, and in more advanced stages also options for ground maneuvers, population evacuation, and more. Everything will be implemented gradually until Hamas agrees to the terms for the hostage deal. Of course, any IDF strike will only be carried out if the POW and MIA headquarters definitively confirms there is no hostage presence in the location.
So why be pessimistic?
No reserve mobilization has yet been announced for the operation, and even when it happens, it's not clear how many reserve soldiers will come. The many rounds since the war began have worn them down to the bone, and while the coalition isn't taking any steps toward easing the burden, they face another Passover Seder in the Gaza Strip.
Until ground forces enter, I find it hard to see Hamas breaking and asking to return to negotiations. Airstrikes are not expected to defeat them. What might encourage high turnout rates is the understanding that the current ground operation will be carried out more forcefully. Reserve soldiers are tired of the stagnation and unnecessary risk to life. A change in the IDF's approach, abandoning the raid method and sticking to aggressive maneuvering, preliminary fire, and holding territory will increase the desire to fight.
Alongside the attack on Gaza, the defense minister and the IDF chief of staff conducted a situation assessment, after which it was decided to tighten guidelines for residents of Gaza border communities, so that educational activities will not take place and the train line in Sderot will not operate. This is a bad habit that has become so deeply entrenched in the system that even a new defense minister and a fresh chief of staff have not managed to get rid of it. The message of defensiveness during an offensive that you initiate after a year and a half of war – doesn't convey striking the enemy but rather Israel's weakness.
Second, all educational activities in Gaza border communities are already taking place in protected spaces, so why disrupt the children's routine and that of their parents who will have to stay home? Regarding the closure of the Sderot train, it's a disgrace. Just a few weeks ago, the line was opened for the first time since the war began, and only after concrete walls were placed at certain points along the railway, so suddenly that's not enough? The IDF spokesperson's office offered only a laconic response: "The Sderot train was closed due to maintaining residents' security and home front preparations as part of the military activity."
