It was hard to miss the schadenfreude across the Middle East overnight (Saturday to Sunday). For a year and a half, the Houthis in Yemen have effectively controlled the Red Sea, attacking dozens of vessels, hijacking a ship, and wreaking havoc on the economies of Jordan and Egypt. Along the way, the Houthi leader taunted Arab rulers, portraying himself as the only leader truly acting on behalf of the region.
Now, following the change of administration in the White House, it seems the party is over. Within hours, the US launched its most extensive strike to date, targeting drone warehouses, air defense systems, and ballistic missile stockpiles. Yet, Gulf states remain wary of the unfolding events.
A senior Saudi official made it clear overnight that the kingdom did not provide any logistical assistance to the US-led coalition. He further denied claims that Saudi Arabia helped refuel American aircraft, calling the allegations baseless. A Saudi analyst noted that Riyadh is pursuing a calculated policy, preferring to "hold the carrot" while letting others bear the burden of the stick. In other words, Saudi Arabia is allowing the US to strike the Houthis without paying the price of retaliation while positioning itself as a mediator in the Yemen conflict.
The United Arab Emirates has also refrained from issuing an official response. However, senior commentator Amjad Taha, a UAE resident, left no doubt about the prevailing sentiment in the federation: "It's Ramadan, and Trump has given the Middle East the gift it really wanted. Everyone is celebrating as he eliminates the terrorist Houthis in Yemen. These murderers made no distinctions, attacking Americans, Arabs, Muslims, Jews - anyone who stood in their way. The message is clear: the region does not do things halfway."
Meanwhile, the UAE's National Security Advisor, Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, is set to begin an official visit to the US tomorrow. The senior Emirati official will meet with top Trump administration officials at the White House, with discussions expected to cover regional issues, including Yemen. The UAE has a unique approach to Yemen. In recent years, it has backed factions advocating for the reestablishment of South Yemen - a relatively homogeneous Sunni political entity that would serve as a counterbalance to the Houthis in northern Yemen.
These factions, which have aligned with the pro-Saudi "Presidential Leadership Council" controlling Aden and southern Yemen, have long sought the backing of a global power or even Israeli support. Without massive support for these anti-Houthi forces, it is doubtful that airstrikes alone will be sufficient to neutralize the Iran-backed militia. Indeed, senior Houthi officials have repeatedly stated that the ongoing operation will not deter them from continuing attacks on Red Sea shipping. Ultimately, an air campaign has its limitations, and without ground forces, the Houthis will likely survive and continue targeting maritime routes, albeit in a more constrained manner.
For now, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are waiting for Washington's next move. If the US decides to extend the air campaign while supporting local anti-Houthi forces, they may consider joining the effort, or at least providing assistance from afar. However, if Washington merely issues statements about "restoring deterrence," the Gulf states will continue sitting on the sidelines. It is doubtful that they are willing to once again get mired in the Yemeni quagmire.
