A ceasefire prevails in the Gaza Strip, under whose cover Hamas has rebuilt its strength and reasserted its iron grip over the strip and its residents.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, while the IDF maintains a presence along the border, a largely symbolic a presence that photographs well for the media but, in practice, allows Hezbollah to rebuilt its strength under the ceasefire agreement we signed three months ago.
But for those wondering where Israel's energy is currently directed, the answer is clear: not toward ensuring the elimination of Hamas in Gaza or decisively defeating Hezbollah - far from it. Instead, our efforts are being funneled into an adventure in Syria, an ill-conceived and reckless endeavor that lacks any strategic or military logic and will ultimately harm us in the future.
At the beginning of December, a significant event took place in Damascus: the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the familiar devil we knew. While Assad maintained quiet along the border, he also allowed Iran to entrench itself in his country and helped transform Hezbollah into a major threat against us.
Taking his place is Ahmad al-Sharaa, whom we previously knew as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group with roots in al-Qaeda and ISIS.
Since then, not a day has passed without al-Sharaa sending messages of reassurance, and even reconciliation, toward Israel. His spokespeople have floated the possibility of peace, while he himself repeatedly emphasizes that Syria is a shattered state, uninterested in war, seeking only good neighborly relations with surrounding countries. To him, Iran and Hezbollah - not Israel - are the enemies, and in Syria, neither will be forgiven for their role in the massacre of hundreds of thousands of Syrians under Assad's rule.
Can we trust al-Sharaa and his words? Not necessarily. We should follow the principle of "trust but verify", monitoring his actions rather than just his declarations, while ensuring that no new terrorist entity takes root to our north. If al-Sharaa does choose confrontation, it does not seem likely at this moment. At the same time, Israel has no interest in casting itself as the enemy of the new Syria, as long as Syria does not project hostility toward us.
Yet, over the past three months, Israel has made every possible mistake in Syria. First, it seized territories inside Syria without any security necessity, simply because it could and because it made for good optics. Second, it issued an empty declaration about establishing a demilitarized zone south of Damascus, an impractical move. Finally, it announced an intention to assist the Druze, despite their clear lack of interest in such help.
The Druze in Syria, like their brethren in Lebanon and Israel, consider themselves an inseparable part of their respective states. Currently, they are struggling for their status in Syria against al-Sharaa and his forces, who have persecuted and even killed them in the past. But they have always seen and continue to see themselves as Syrians. It goes without saying that they have no intention of seeking direct assistance from Israel. After all, they understand better than we do that Israeli policies shift like a weather vane, while their own future remains firmly rooted in the Syrian landscape. They do not want that future tainted by allegations of collaboration with Israel.
As a result, Israel has managed to impose itself as a central issue on the Syrian agenda, after a period in which many Syrians had even viewed us favorably, especially given the blows we had dealt to Hezbollah. Now, however, in both Syria and among our Gulf allies, we are once again being perceived as a bully intent on flexing its muscles, expanding its reach, and seizing land that does not belong to it.
With our own hands, we are pushing Syria into Turkey's embrace. Those who do not want al-Sharaa will end up with Erdogan.
Israel is defended from Israeli soil. Had we done so on October 7, disaster would not have struck. Israel is safeguarded by identifying and neutralizing enemy military capabilities. Had we done so in Lebanon ahead of time, we could have spared ourselves many troubles.
Israel is not protected by empty declarations or PR stunts, moves that do nothing to serve our national security and only endanger it further.
