Russia is working to maintain its influence in Syria despite the fall of President Bashar Assad months after Israel tried to create such a deal that would entrench such a presence, Wall Street Journal reported, as Moscow engages with the new rebel leadership that it previously fought against during Syria's decade-long civil war.
According to the Wall Street Journal, in a surprising development, Russia has begun negotiating with the new Syrian government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), seeking to preserve its military bases and economic interests in the country. This rapprochement comes despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-standing support for Assad, which included extensive bombing campaigns against HTS positions throughout the civil war.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Russia delivered the equivalent of $23 million in Syrian currency to Damascus last month, providing critical financial support to the cash-strapped new government. This assistance came as Qatar and Saudi Arabia delayed their promised financial aid, reportedly waiting for clarity from the US President Donald Trump's administration on whether sanctions against the former HTS rebels would be lifted.
"Russia's advantage in negotiating with Syria is that it is not hindered by any ethical concerns dealing with Syria and can implement decisions without needing consensus," Anna Borshchevskaya, a fellow at the Washington Institute focusing on Moscow's policy toward the Middle East, told the Wall Street Journal. "The key question is how will the West position itself and engage with Syria to reduce reasons to rely on Russia."
The negotiations between Moscow and Damascus began in January when Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, and Alexander Lavrentiev, its Syria envoy, arrived in Syria. While initially focused on preserving Russia's Khmeimim air base and naval facility at Tartus, the talks expanded to include broader economic relations.
The tentative relationship gained momentum after Putin held his first phone call with Ahmad al-Sharaa, the new Syrian president and former rebel leader. Following this conversation, Russia sent the airplane loaded with banknotes, and according to the Syrian presidency, Putin invited Syria's foreign minister to Moscow and expressed readiness to discuss agreements previously signed with the Assad regime.
Former US diplomat David Schenker, who led the State Department's Near East department during the first Trump administration, criticized Washington's approach. "The US's lack of engagement in Syria makes it difficult to oppose a Russian return," he told the Wall Street Journal.
For Syria's new leadership, diversifying allies beyond Turkey is a strategic priority. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan quickly deployed businessmen, officials, and military forces to parts of northern Syria after Assad's fall, creating potential concerns about over-dependence on Ankara.
Syrian negotiators have framed their talks with Russia as an attempt to secure compensation for destruction caused by Russian bombing during the civil war. They have also requested the repatriation of funds transferred by the former regime to Russia, which according to customs records amounts to approximately $250 million sent to a state bank in Moscow between 2018 and 2019. Additionally, members of the Assad family purchased over $40 million worth of apartments in luxury Russian skyscrapers, according to a 2019 report by Global Witness.
The discussions have revived Russia's economic ambitions in Syria, which include development of the Tartus port, offshore natural gas concessions, phosphate mines, hydrocarbon fields near Palmyra, and a fertilizer plant in Homs. These projects had stalled under Assad's rule.
The Wall Street Journal reports that in the week before Assad's fall, Israel attempted to broker a deal with the incoming Trump administration that would have allowed Russia to invest in Syria without impediment if Assad marginalized Iran. When Trump's team rejected this proposal, Moscow reportedly abandoned Assad, having grown tired of his leadership.
With few alternatives elsewhere, Russia now sees a fresh opportunity to rebuild its presence in Syria, while Damascus may have found a partner to counter Turkish and Iranian influence in the region. Russia's only other potential foothold in the region is through Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, but negotiations to establish a naval base there have been unsuccessful, according to Libyan, European and US officials cited by the Wall Street Journal.
