Germany's parliamentary elections this week represented far more than a routine party contest – they constituted a decisive referendum on the nation's future trajectory and, by extension, that of the entire European continent. The results delivered an unmistakable verdict: the prevailing status quo has failed.
The dramatic collapse of the SPD alongside the strengthening of right-wing forces, from centrist conservatives to more radical elements, reflects a German electorate rebelling against the economic fallout of environmental policies, immigration challenges, and what many perceive as ineffective foreign policy. In a country grappling with profound economic stagnation, escalating public demonstrations, and deepening political divisions, these elections signal a pivotal redirection – with implications extending well beyond Germany's borders.
Who emerges strengthened from this electoral upheaval? The answers reveal a fascinating political landscape: from Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz to tech billionaire Elon Musk, from the cascading effect on European conservative movements to significant implications for Israel-Iran dynamics. And who finds themselves wounded on this political battlefield? The casualties include not merely socialist parties but also Brussels-based EU institutions, advocates of liberal immigration policies, and Vladimir Putin's Russia. Below is a comprehensive analysis of the winners, losers, and what these results portend for Germany's future – and that of the entire continent.
The winners
Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU Alliance
Friedrich Merz's path to German leadership has been anything but straightforward. Angela Merkel's successor found himself relegated to the political periphery for years, sidelined by the legendary Chancellor and forced to witness the conservative CDU/CSU alliance's previous electoral collapse. This alliance, comprising the Christian Democratic Union (operating throughout Germany) and the Christian Social Union (active exclusively in Bavaria), now finds itself resurgent under Merz's leadership. Having emerged from his political exile, Merz has guided the center-right coalition to a definitive victory over the Social Democrats (SPD), who suffered their most devastating defeat since the 19th century, clearing his path to the Chancellery.
Unlike other right-wing leaders who have risen globally in recent years, Merz bears little resemblance to a Trumpian figure in temperament, character, or policy approach. Instead, he has positioned himself as a credible conservative alternative to Olaf Scholz's faltering leadership, particularly regarding the economic crisis that has plagued Germany for five years and the increasingly controversial liberal immigration policies. Despite his convincing victory, Merz faces a delicate balancing act – lacking an outright majority, forming a stable government will necessitate compromise, either through cooperation with his Social Democratic rivals or, despite his assertions to the contrary, by moving further rightward.
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
Germany's far-right party became the epicenter of a political struggle that reverberated beyond Germany's borders, drawing attention from neighboring nations and even senior American officials. Originally established as a fringe protest movement within German politics, the party endured years of boycotts and vehement opposition before unexpectedly gaining momentum. In these elections, AfD transformed into a central political force, achieving a historic milestone by securing over 20% of the votes.
Despite impressions created by international media coverage, AfD members are not Nazis, nor do they focus exclusively on immigration (though certain representatives undoubtedly raise concerns with their extreme rhetoric and proposals). A significant portion of their recent electoral gains stemmed not from immigration or national security platforms but from economic issues and opposition to environmental policies and left-wing economic approaches that the Scholz coalition attempted to implement in recent years with limited success.
AfD has already established itself as the dominant party in eastern Germany. Similar to other populist right-wing movements across Europe, its most devoted supporters appear to be younger voters in their twenties, energized by the passionate messaging consistently delivered by party representatives and the sophisticated social media campaigns conducted on platforms like TikTok.
The primary challenge facing AfD now involves demonstrating its capacity to expand beyond its traditional support base and penetrate mainstream German politics. While its achievements remain insufficient for governance, they certainly possess enough influence to force shifts in public discourse and, at minimum, push the CDU/CSU rightward to prevent losing political ground.
The European Right
Germany's election results exist within a broader European context. In recent years, nationalist and populist right-wing parties have secured significant victories across the continent, allowing leaders such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Marine Le Pen in France, and Giorgia Meloni in Italy to claim another triumph. The very fact that AfD strengthened despite facing media delegitimization and substantial censorship (Germany, for understandable historical reasons, maintains stricter speech regulations) represents a victory for all right-wing movements opposing mass immigration and European Union governance. The conservative party's victory may similarly please populist right-wing movements, though German conservatives remain considerably more institutional than their counterparts elsewhere.
As Europe's political climate shifts, Brussels leadership confronts mounting pressure from local forces across numerous member states seeking to diminish its centralized authority. The traditional coalitions between moderate conservatives and left-wing parties can no longer be taken for granted, with new political alignments emerging that question the future of the federal European vision championed by Merkel and Emmanuel Macron.
Elon Musk
Yes, once again, Elon Musk features prominently. While the billionaire's involvement in European politics might appear peripheral, he emerged as one of the most influential voices providing momentum to AfD, developing what appeared to be an almost obsessive interest in the party during recent weeks. Musk leveraged his enormous influence on X and throughout international media to generate support for the party. Having previously criticized unrestricted European immigration and antisemitism within the European left, Musk reinforced the narrative that nationalist right-wing movements are neither automatically beyond the pale nor as extreme as often portrayed, but rather represent genuine public frustration.
Beyond his specific role in German politics, Musk exemplifies a broader phenomenon – the growing influence of business magnates on Western political discourse. In an environment where public trust in traditional media continues to erode, figures like Musk can shape political narratives through social networks, functioning as counterweights to established institutional powers. One might wonder if he will similarly involve himself in Israel's next electoral cycle.
Israel
For Israel, these election results represent exceptionally positive developments. Merz is widely regarded as a friend to Israel, a critic of Iran, and consistently emphasizes Germany's commitment to Jewish state security. He has already pledged to remove restrictions on arms shipments to Israel imposed during the past year. Unlike Scholz's hesitant approach, a Merz-led government is expected to adopt a firmer stance toward Tehran and enhance scrutiny of Iranian and pro-Iranian institutions operating within Germany.
Furthermore, the weakening of left-wing and Green parties – which typically adopt critical and confrontational positions regarding Israel – liberates Berlin from the European tendency to yield to anti-Israel pressures. Israel can anticipate more robust cooperation with Berlin in both security and diplomatic spheres under the incoming administration.
The losers
The Social Democratic Party (SPD)
Without question, the SPD emerges as the election's most significant casualty. Having finally reclaimed German leadership in 2021 following Angela Merkel's retirement, the Social Democrats have now plummeted to historic lows, hemorrhaging millions of voters. Olaf Scholz has become an increasingly marginal and ineffectual figure in public affairs, while his government failed to address the economic crisis or public outrage over immigration policies.
The SPD's decline transcends German politics – it represents a component of a more profound European left-wing crisis. After decades of continental governance, Social Democratic parties continue losing influence as electorates seek alternative solutions to the economic, security, and social challenges convulsing Europe.
The European Union
The European Union has long viewed Germany as a cornerstone of its stability, but now confronts a more nationalist-oriented Germany less interested in close Brussels collaboration, particularly given AfD's exceptional performance. Should Merz adopt a more assertive position toward Brussels, this would undermine the Union's influence and capacity to enforce unified policies across member states.
With nationalist forces gaining strength, Germany may create obstacles to developing cohesive policies on energy, economic regulations, and immigration. The extended period during which Germany functioned as the European Union's bulwark may have concluded, with Brussels' authority becoming increasingly tenuous.
Russia, and perhaps also Ukraine
The SPD's defeat and the left's weakening represent unfavorable developments for the Kremlin. The Scholz government weathered criticism for its insufficiently robust stance toward Moscow, and with Merz assuming power, Germany is expected to align more closely with NATO and implement more proactive policies supporting Ukraine. Merz has additionally committed to increasing German defense expenditure substantially, potentially achieving "independence" from the United States – another unwelcome development for Putin, who would undoubtedly prefer dealing with a disengaged Berlin.
Conversely, AfD's strengthening could spell difficulties for Ukraine, as similar to other populist right-wing movements across Europe and beyond, some party leaders have adopted conciliatory attitudes toward Putin and expressed qualified support for his positions – or at minimum asserted that Germany should prioritize domestic concerns over Ukrainian affairs. While AfD will not form the government or determine policy, its influence could nevertheless complicate matters for Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a moment when reliable allies are desperately needed.
The German Greens
Until recently, Europe's Green parties appeared convinced of their inevitable ascendancy. Growing concern regarding climate change and its consequences, Brussels' environmental initiatives, and the transition toward renewable energy all provided momentum, strengthening their position in Germany and elsewhere. In 2025 Germany, however, this trend has reversed – the public increasingly recognizes the economic costs associated with environmental transformation, while protest movements against elevated energy and fuel prices threaten these parties' future prospects.
The Greens lost support not only to conservatives but also to AfD, which partially constructed its campaign around opposition to aggressive environmental policy enforcement mechanisms. As Germany's economy contracts and Berlin struggles to generate meaningful growth, the economic revolution has become a burden many citizens refuse to shoulder. Germany's election results serve as a warning to anyone who assumed the public would passively accept economic impositions justified by environmental concerns.
Iran
As Berlin shifts rightward, Tehran has cause for concern. Olaf Scholz and his administration maintained relatively moderate positions regarding international efforts to counter Iran, adopting a conciliatory approach toward the ayatollahs' regime partly to preserve German economic interests. A conservative Chancellor like Merz is unlikely to continue this policy – his government may intensify pressure on Iran and align more closely with Israeli and American positions on the matter.
This shift holds relevance beyond foreign policy, extending to the management of Iranian networks within Germany itself. In recent years, pro-Iranian Shiite communities in Germany have received relatively permissive treatment from authorities, including tolerance for their political and social activities. With a more conservative government taking office, increased supervision of Iranian organizations and greater vigilance against Tehran's foreign influence operations can be anticipated.
