Could Trump turn on Israel like he did to Zelensky? The short answer is no.
Trump, after all, is a consistent person. His likes and dislikes are well known and rarely change. Unlike Ukraine and Zelensky, for whom Trump never cared much, Israel – and the Jewish people – hold a very warm place in his heart, as well as his respect. His show of solidarity with the hostages is one clear expression of these feelings.
Moreover, Trump's greatest foreign policy achievements from his first term, such as moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and the Abraham Accords, are directly connected to Israel. It is hard to believe he would reverse course.
Third, Trump is personally and politically surrounded by many people –Jews and others –for whom Israel is extremely important. If he were to turn his back on us, which, as noted, seems unlikely, he would lose a significant support base.
And now, the asterisk
Having said that, there is still a cautionary note, one that applies not only to Trump but even more so to his successors.
Trump, like any political player, respects strength. The weak are trampled; the strong are respected. In an interview he gave to Israel Hayom a year ago, Trump expressed a certain distance from Israel. In the midst of his presidential campaign, he explained: "You don't have the support you used to have. Some 15 years ago, Israel had the strongest lobby. If you were a politician, you couldn't say anything bad about Israel, that would be like the end of your political career. Today, it's almost the opposite."
Trump stopped making such remarks after Israel's pager operation and the dismantling of the Iranian axis. These, in his eyes, restored Israel's image of strength. However, his words show that without this strategic shift, his attitude might have been less embracing. Additionally, it is worth remembering that within the MAGA movement, there are isolationist elements that are not particularly fond of Israel and want the US to stop acting as the world's policeman.
This reality aligns with the very complicated policy of the previous Democratic administration toward Israel. Israel's outgoing ambassador to Washington, Michael (Mike) Herzog, revealed in an extensive interview with Israel Hayom just how difficult it was to maintain American support for Israel during the war.
There is room to assume that the Democratic Party will "course correct" to the right and that its next administration may be more favorable toward Israel. Still, the bottom line is that in both parties, there are elements who may not come to Israel's aid in the future if it finds itself in distress.
The bottom line that matters for Israel
The conclusion is that Trump himself is unlikely to turn on Israel. But to ensure that his successors – regardless of party – also do not, Israel must be extremely strong and prepare itself to stand alone for as long as possible.
To achieve this goal, as well as to face other long-term security challenges, there must be a comprehensive national effort by the Jewish people, both in Israel and in the Diaspora. The world is entering a very tense period with the risk of a third world war, as Trump himself has warned. No one will protect the Jewish people if they do not protect themselves.
