The most significant obstacle to ending the war and returning all hostages has effectively been removed thanks to President Donald Trump – and the shock effect created by his threats and declarations since being elected. How did this happen? How far did he go in his threats to Egypt, Jordan, and Qatar to remove this obstacle?
The "problem" is removing Hamas from control of the Gaza Strip while returning all hostages home. Until a month ago, Hamas refused every proposal presented to relinquish control of Gaza, certainly not to lay down arms and exile its leaders from the Strip.
However, a week ago, voices began emerging in the Arab world claiming that to create a solution for Gaza, its rehabilitation, and its future – Hamas must be out of the picture. The first to start this was Ahmad Abu al-Gheit, the Egyptian Secretary-General of the Arab League, not an ardent Zionist, who in an interview with the Saudi network Al Arabiya said Hamas must exit the picture.
"President Mahmoud Abbas declared that the Palestinian Authority is ready to return to Gaza and take responsibility on the ground immediately after the fighting stops. What's the problem? That there's Hamas which Israel tried to eliminate," the source said. "This Hamas force on the ground must agree with the Palestinian Authority and there needs to be an international vision. If Palestinian interests require it, Hamas must exit the picture."
It's no secret that Sunni Arab states, except Qatar, see Hamas as a threat first and foremost to themselves – and to the entire region. Hamas is part of the Muslim Brotherhood movement, the main opposition to President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Egypt and which nurtures more or less extreme Islamist elements in all Arab countries.
Qatar is the primary funder of this movement, and Turkey also provides patronage. Only this attitude toward Hamas wasn't stated in English and wasn't marketed to the West. The Saudis and Emiratis supported the Israeli position of dismantling Hamas as a main war objective but they too didn't declare this publicly.
The change happened with the White House transition. Alongside Special Envoy Steve Witkoff's pressure that led to the hostage deal signing, Trump was clear from the first moment that Hamas must be out. So how to get the Arabs to act? First, through unequivocal declarations about dismantling Hamas and support for the Israeli position, and also by dropping a bomb in the center of the field. This bomb was the idea of migration from Gaza, to rehabilitate it.
As noted, one of the reasons for raising this policy publicly and repeating it several times to prove seriousness was creating shock among the participants. As if saying: there's a new landlord and he'll do what's needed to advance policy. And the shock happened. Conversations with Arab acquaintances and sources after Trump's first declaration on the matter in his meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed exactly this – the shock, disbelief, and fear.
Israel Hayom reveals for the first time that Trump's message to several regional leaders was: if you don't cooperate with me, I'm giving Netanyahu free rein to do whatever he wants – to use any force needed against Hamas. He'll get all the weapons needed, all international backing, he can take control of any territory he wants and even start rebuilding settlements. Humanitarian aid won't enter, and even the sovereignty issue in Judea and Samaria was on the table.
These threats were raised – according to American sources, an Emirati source, and a senior Israeli source – both in conversations Special Envoy Steve Witkoff held with regional officials, in Trump's talks with President al-Sisi and King Abdullah, and in messages to Arab ambassadors in Washington.
UAE Ambassador to Washington Yousef Al Otaiba illustrated this when saying among other things that Trump's plan for migration from Gaza is difficult but the only alternative. A kind of surprising support for a plan that aroused such great opposition in the Arab world.
The message through shock worked and the response was enormous pressure on Hamas to change its position. During the Hamas delegation's visit to Cairo in recent days, the organization's leaders were made clear that if they don't concede, the war will resume – and Israel will complete the full destruction of Gaza, this time without humanitarian aid which President Joe Biden forced on Israel, aid that allowed Hamas to survive and begin military rehabilitation – this despite hostages being held by the organization.
According to Palestinian sources, most of Hamas leadership agreed to the political concession, giving up control of Gaza to an international Arab committee that according to the Egyptian plan will be responsible for Gaza's rehabilitation, with the Palestinian Authority also participating. The opponents are some of the organization's leaders inside Gaza.
However, Hamas posed several demands, including: integrating its people into the security forces and police that will take responsibility for Gaza, keeping Hamas civilian government workers in their positions, immunity for its security force members from PA security forces, and extradition to external entities, and also political-diplomatic participation in the stage of establishing Palestinian rule in Gaza.
Israel opposes all these demands. The unequivocal Israeli requirement is Gaza's complete disarmament, exile, or arrest of anyone involved in the military wing of all terror organizations, Israeli control of the perimeter along the border fence, and Israeli control or supervision of the crossings.
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced unequivocally his opposition to bringing the Palestinian Authority to control Gaza. The Authority is trying to show it's making changes in its approach to terror, but despite the order President Abbas published, it continues paying families of terrorists including those who participated in the Oct. 7 massacre. Therefore, even if the central problem of removing Hamas from power has been removed, there are still many obstacles to completing the war's objectives and eliminating the security threat to Israel from the Gaza Strip.
What does this mean for the hostages? Extension of phase one or initial phase two is on the agenda to allow continued discussions about the long term, meaning, the release of more hostages not from the phase one list – but Hamas will keep sufficient assets for continuing negotiations.
