The video of Arbel Yehud, published last night, likely brought a sense of relief to her loved ones. For 479 days, they had awaited confirmation that she was alive. This reassurance arrived shortly before they are set to embrace her in person this Thursday.
This video differed from previous hostage testimonies released in Gaza. Until now, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad had disseminated footage intended to exert psychological pressure on Israeli public opinion to advance Palestinian interests in negotiations. This time, the pressure was directed at Gaza itself.
Arbel's failure to be released last Saturday, contrary to the agreement, prompted Israel to take a firmer stance. This resulted in delaying the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza and making an unequivocal demand for proof of life from Arbel before progressing further with the agreement.
The date Arbel mentioned in the video - January 25, the same Saturday - indicates that the pressure worked. Islamic Jihad, which is holding her, rushed to film the video and send it to Israel via mediators to demonstrate its intent to uphold the agreement.
This offers a vital lesson: pressure is a two-way street, influencing both sides simultaneously. Israel insisted on the agreement's terms and achieved more as a result. Six hostages will be returned alive this week, earlier than initially planned. While some argue that Israel should have used the momentum to demand additional concessions, it is likely that it chose not to overburden mediators, particularly the Trump administration.
The repatriation of displaced Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip, which began yesterday, marks a pivotal moment in the agreement. Hamas' insistence on this point was no accident. More than one million refugees displaced to southern Gaza had placed immense pressure on the organization. Their return home will ease that burden but create a new one: many have no homes to return to. Makeshift refugee camps will likely arise throughout northern Gaza's cities and neighborhoods.
Hamas may exploit this new wave of displacement to apply further pressure on Israel through mediators. Israel must stand firm as Hamas may attempt to evade its obligations under the agreement. While the return of refugees has deprived Israel of a key bargaining chip, other tools remain: control over the Philadelphi Route, practical authority over the Rafah crossing, and the ongoing leverage of humanitarian aid to Gaza.
However, these measures alone will not suffice. Close coordination with the US will be essential to ensure Hamas fulfills its commitments and to advance the agreement's second phase.
Returning to war?
The Palestinians' return to northern Gaza naturally complicates Israel's ability to resume military operations, which the government officially insists upon. Here too, Washington will play a central role. This issue is expected to be at the forefront of an upcoming meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, though it may be tied to larger issues, particularly the Iranian nuclear threat and the much-discussed Saudi mega-deal.
In its first week in office, the Trump administration has been highly attentive to Israel's concerns. This has been reflected in several areas—from releasing heavy munitions to extending security assistance and allowing the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to remain in Lebanon for an additional three weeks. Continued coordination with Washington will be critical on nearly every issue. Israel must also be mindful of American interests, particularly the hostage situation, which Trump has made a personal priority. If Israel were to disappoint him for narrow political reasons, it could face repercussions that impact its national security.
Arbel's anticipated release this Thursday will mark the first from southern Gaza. The seven female hostages released thus far were held in Gaza City, where observer Agam Berger, also slated for release, is being held. It remains unclear how Hamas intends to synchronize the upcoming releases. Additionally, the organization is expected to continue its propaganda efforts, including maximizing the impact of returning the remains of eight individuals alongside 18 more living hostages in the coming weeks.
These will be trying moments, requiring immense resilience from families, decision-makers, and the Israeli public. Among the emotional scenes will be the heartbreaking realization that some hostages, who became symbols of unity for Israelis, are no longer alive.
Tragically, this is the grim reality of this brutal conflict. The road to victory remains long, but the return of the hostages marks the first and most crucial milestone.
