On Monday, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the US and began his second term. Iran and its proxies, other Arab nations like Syria and Iraq, America's Western allies, and international organizations are all closely watching to see what his administration will bring.
Iran and its proxies
Last week Bloomberg reported that Trump's advisers recommended returning to the maximum pressure strategy on Iran – which significantly curtailed Iranian oil exports during his first term – beginning with a comprehensive sanctions package targeting key players in the oil industry. These sanctions could be implemented as early as February, according to sources close to the 47th president. On the sanctions front, Iranian officials warned their European counterparts that if the "snap back" mechanism is activated – significant sanctions that can be imposed when Iran approaches nuclear weapons capability – they will immediately withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Al Arabiya reported last weekend that Israel has decided to strike Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming months. A senior European diplomat told the newspaper that it remains unclear whether the US will participate in the operation. Meanwhile, Iran has spent the last two weeks conducting drills to defend against aerial attacks on its nuclear facilities in Natanz and Fordow. The Ayatollah regime claims to have repaired damage from previous Israeli strikes on air defense systems and added new defensive capabilities.
The head of international relations for Hamas, Mousa Abu Marzouk, declared his organization's readiness to engage with the US and reach understandings "on all issues." Whether these statements represent Hamas's official position remains unclear. In an interview with The New York Times, Abu Marzouk characterized Donald Trump as a serious president, stating: "Trump needs to take credit for ending the war" and welcomed new US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff's decision to visit Gaza. "Witkoff can come see the people and try to understand their feelings and desires so American policy will reflect all sides' interests, not just one perspective," he explained.
Aidarus al-Zoubaidi, vice president of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council – which opposes the Houthis and holds UN recognition – recently argued that airstrikes alone are insufficient against the Houthis and ground operations are necessary. Yesterday he welcomed Trump's White House return, telling Reuters that Trump's strong leadership and willingness to use military force contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's approach, which he claims allowed the Houthis to consolidate power and expand beyond Yemen's borders.
"We admire and support Trump's policy," al-Zoubaidi declared at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, adding "he knows what he wants" and expressing optimism about early talks with the new administration. Al-Zoubaidi emphasized the need for a coordinated international, regional, and local strategy under US leadership to weaken the Houthis and end their attacks on Red Sea shipping.
The Houthis have already reduced their attacks and today announced they will target only Israeli vessels, significantly diminishing Trump's motivation to strike them. The terror organization controlling western Yemen stated that if the Israel-Hamas ceasefire becomes permanent, they will cease attacks on Israeli ships as well.
Israel has expressed concern that the Lebanese Army's deployment in the Litani area – meant to prevent Hezbollah's return and control as Lebanon promised in the ceasefire agreement – is proceeding too slowly, necessitating an Israeli presence beyond the agreed 60 days. Trump's circle is pressing both sides to honor the arrangement and disapproves of Israel's stated intentions. Biden administration envoy Amos Hochstein assured new Lebanese President Joseph Aoun that Israel will comply with the terms. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem declared earlier this week: "The resistance in Lebanon will remain immune to the American-Israeli project, maintaining its strength, readiness, and loyalty to the martyrs' blood for liberating the land and Palestine." Some in Lebanon hope Trump will take a hawkish stance toward Hezbollah.
Arab nations
American involvement in Syria across the three administrations before Trump's second term reflected a broader pattern of declining US engagement in the Middle East, characterized by limited military intervention. In Trump's second term, following Assad's removal, substantial American intervention in Syria appears unlikely, as evidenced by the new president's own words: "This is not our fight," alongside his praise for Turkish President Erdogan's handling of Syria. Trump's inner circle has expressed dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's plans to remove Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel organization controlling Syria, from terror organization listings.
Israel maintains a clear strategic interest in continued American presence in Syria, and Trump is unlikely to take actions that would undermine this position. Moreover, even if Trump pursues an isolationist approach and seeks to withdraw all American forces from Syria, he may face resistance from both the Pentagon and Congress – similar to his first term, when domestic pressure led him to maintain an American presence in northern Syria.
Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has expressed interest in expanding partnership with the United States, stating: "We are committed to strategic relations with America and seek to strengthen security and economic coordination with Washington." Trump's team has recently engaged with Iraqi officials, warning that continued launches toward Israel or ongoing energy deals, smuggling, and money laundering with Iran will trigger sanctions. Recent assessments suggest the Iraqi government has grown more cautious due to Trump-related concerns, though secret coordination with Iran continues.
The Communist bloc
Earlier today, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a 90-minute video conference, discussing the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine, potential ceasefire arrangements, and relations with incoming President Trump. Following the call, officials from both nations indicated their readiness to develop ties with the US under Trump's leadership.
Throughout his campaign, Trump consistently emphasized his desire for a swift end to the Ukraine conflict, reportedly encouraging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russian ceasefire proposals in exchange for ceding conquered territories. While Trump initially seemed aligned with the Republican Party's isolationist wing regarding Ukraine, suggesting an end to weapons shipments, recent weeks indicate security support may continue until a ceasefire is reached. Simultaneously, the Trump administration is considering lifting Russian sanctions as part of war-ending preparations. Putin congratulated Trump yesterday on his White House return, expressing readiness to discuss both Ukraine and nuclear weapons.
China's 2019 sanctions on incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio remain under review, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, responding to questions about the potential lifting of these measures.
Trump recently characterized North Korea as a "nuclear power" and anticipated Kim Jong Un's pleasure at his White House return. He views favorably the strong leadership demonstrated by the leaders of China, Russia, and North Korea. "I was very friendly with him," Trump recalled of Kim, "he liked me. I liked him. We got along very well. Some thought it was a terrible threat," he told reporters while signing executive orders. However, prospects for renewed US-North Korea nuclear diplomacy remain uncertain, as Pyongyang's interest in Washington's engagement may have diminished given its increasing reliance on Russia for essentials and its military support in Ukraine.
Troubled relations with neighbors
Among Trump's first post-victory announcements was a plan to impose 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico, expected to take effect in early February. Mexico presents particular challenges, with southern border migration averaging 2 million annually during Biden's term, alongside synthetic drug trafficking fueling a devastating opioid epidemic in American cities. If Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum fails to effectively combat the cartels – which Trump has designated as terror organizations – the returning president may adopt an even tougher stance toward his southern neighbor.
Additional countries
Trump has threatened European nations with tariffs and expressed interest in acquiring Greenland. His first-term relations with several European Union countries were notably strained. British officials have criticized world's richest man and Trump administration figure Elon Musk's involvement in local politics and promotion of "far-right conspiracies" regarding "grooming gangs."
Musk faced similar criticism in Germany over his connections with the far-right AfD party. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reached out to Trump, suggesting: "We can work together to create a decisive movement for freedom, peace, security, prosperity and economic development across the Atlantic." However, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck criticized Trump's institutional disrespect as an inappropriate model for Europe, warning that Trump's tariffs would exacerbate inflation and global geopolitical division. Habeck, architect of Germany's plan for 80% renewable electricity by 2030, called Trump's Paris Agreement withdrawal disastrous.
Reports indicate India's willingness to cooperate with Trump in repatriating approximately 18,000 illegal Indian immigrants from America.
International organizations
Trump has pressured NATO members on financial commitments while advocating for increased minimum defense spending to 5% of GDP for all alliance members.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, addressing Trump's Paris Agreement withdrawal, maintained the treaty remains "humanity's best hope," adding: "Our first priority will be swift engagement with the Trump administration, discussing shared interests and preparing for negotiations. We'll maintain pragmatism while upholding our principles." Trump has expressed interest in addressing the US-EU trade deficit through tariffs or increased energy exports.
WHO (World Health Organization) spokesperson Tariq Jasarevic expressed regret over Trump's withdrawal decision, hoping for reconsideration. German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach characterized the WHO withdrawal as severely damaging to global health crisis response capabilities.
