The perils of predicting political and diplomatic developments are well known, especially in the Middle East. "Black Swan" events seem par for the course (i.e., events that are highly improbable, difficult to predict, and end up having drastic consequences – like the Hamas Oct. 7 attack).
In my crystal ball column of 2022, I foresaw tough combat ahead. "Israel is likely to wage this year a multifaceted war against Iran's terrorist proxies in the region – Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad – in successive or simultaneous fashion. A full-scale IDF operation to degrade enemy capabilities in Lebanon and Gaza is just a question of time, and this needs to be done before directly striking at Iran in Iran."
I then further wondered "whether Washington would give Israel full-throated backing in such circumstances of intense ground combat, with all the civilian casualties this will entail."
The good news here is that President Donald Trump is returning the White House in two weeks' time, and there is reason to believe that he will give Israel room to maneuver, meaning an opportunity to finish off Hamas in decisive fashion, and the American backing necessary to truly cut Iran down to size.
This entails freeing Israel from the burden of providing "humanitarian aid" to an enemy in Gaza during wartime (as outgoing President Biden illogically has insisted, something that only has kept Hamas in power), and providing Israel with the massive ordnance required destroy Iran's nuclear bomb facilities.
Indeed, this is the year (even the season, winter-spring, meaning now) to tackle Iran, when it is at a nadir and before it goes fully nuclear. Iran's proxies on Israel's borders have been mostly eviscerated (see below) and Tehran has been stripped naked (by Israel) of its Russian-supplied air defense systems. President Trump can and probably will further weaken Iran with renewed "maximum sanctions."
I cannot believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will forgo the historic opportunity to complete his 25-year-long campaign against Iranian domination without a game-changing crushing blow on Iran, a pièce de resistance, which might also blessedly lead to regime change in that country.
In short, there is an opportunity at hand to overwhelmingly reset the regional strategic architecture beyond the knockback already delivered to Iran's so-called "Shiite arc" or "circle of fire" against Israel.
The dreaded Third Lebanon War is now essentially over, with Hezbollah having lost most of its heavy missiles and its political-military leadership including its all-powerful, longstanding leader. (I predicted the demise of Hassan Nasrallah and Yihye Sinwar. In 2022, I wrote that "Yihye Sinwar will go the way of Saleh al-Arouri and discover that there are no virgins waiting for him in the next world. Hassan Nasrallah will get the chance to make a similar discovery.")
Bashar Assad has been pushed out of power too, fleeing like a rat for his life from Syria to Russia. Might Abdul-Malik al-Houthi in Yemen and Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani in Syria be next?
The Turkish dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan will demand significant attention over the coming year, meaning that somebody is going to have to counter his Ottoman-style hegemonic ambitions and ruthless inclinations. Already he has occupied a swath of northern Syria; he seeks to dominate the entire country (through Al-Jolani) and threaten Israel from there; and he is preparing to carry out genuine genocide against Kurdish forces and Kurdish civilians (not the fictitious genocide of which Erdogan has accused Israel) – unless Tayyip is stopped by Trump, and maybe Israel too.
As I accurately predicted, the Israel's new peace treaties with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have held firm, despite the Biden administration's lack of enthusiasm for the Abraham Accords and despite the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. This is the year that a tripartite US-Saudi-Israeli accord will be reached. It is one of Trump's top priorities and is well within reach.
Israel will have to swallow some bitter pills to facilitate this, like acquiescence to the US sale of F-35 fighter jets to Riyadh and acceptance of a US-backed Saudi civilian nuclear program. Netanyahu may also have to mutter something about a "pathway" to Palestinian independence in the distant future even though neither he nor the Saudis believe this is feasible or sensible.
For Trump, everything is transactional, and so he will expect Israel to play ball regarding a Saudi deal along these lines. If Israel does so, it will be well placed to expect a return from Trump down the line on issues closer to home, ranging from Israeli assertion of sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria to pushback against nasty international organizations that are at Israel's throat.
Last year, I predicted that Israel would have to increase its defense budget from 60 to 90 billion shekels (from 16 to 25 billion dollars), with large chunks earmarked for a full year of combat in Gaza and Lebanon, long stints of military duty for reservists, rehabilitation of injured soldiers, massive production and stockpiling of ammunition, and for military strike planning on Iran.
Well, that is out the window. The defense budget this past year skyrocketed to NIS 190 billion (not including support for Israelis displaced from the Negev and Galilee), and in 2025 the budget will likely stand at NIS 150 billion (including the annual US defense package).
And that is before the Nagel Committee hits us this month with its recommendations for military restructuring and defense allocations for the next decade. The committee is going to insist that Israel hike spending on defense from 5 to 7.5% of GDP, which means tens of billions of shekels more.
