Israel will not hesitate to seize the operational and diplomatic opportunity to strike Iran's nuclear infrastructure, which opens with Donald J. Trump's inauguration on January 20.
Discussions with multiple senior Israeli national security officials reveal that the country clearly understands that the achievements from Israel's strike on Iran in October, combined with Trump's diplomatic backing, create particularly favorable circumstances for removing the Iranian nuclear threat.
In the first phase, as the Trump administration takes office, talks are expected to align expectations and plans between the sides. Israeli officials assess that the new administration will initially try to deter Iran from nuclear development through paralyzing economic sanctions.
However, assuming economic sanctions prove insufficient, Israel will aim to pursue military action as soon as possible. The preferred option is for such a strike to be conducted jointly with US forces, both for operational and diplomatic considerations.
The US possesses powerful bunker-buster bombs, not found in Israel's arsenal, that can penetrate the underground complexes where Iran has placed key components of its nuclear infrastructure. Therefore, if the future administration chooses not to join its forces in the military blow against Iran, Israel is capable of acting alone.
Trump is not expected to oppose military action against Iran's nuclear facilities. Notably, President Trump stated during the election campaign that striking Iran's nuclear program was a necessary step.
After the election, people in his inner circle said on various occasions that attacking Iranian nuclear facilities is a plan under consideration.
Since Trump's election victory, two lengthy meetings were held between him and prime minister's envoy, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer.
These meetings covered all critical issues on the agenda between the countries, including Iran's nuclear program. After these meetings, reports emerged in American media that Trump is examining direct US strikes on nuclear facilities.
The former and future president left his listeners with the impression that he took the two known Iranian assassination attempts against him very personally and seriously.
However, until he takes office and gives final directives, it remains unclear what steps he will take, though there is no doubt Trump and his team's approach will be far more hawkish, tough, and assertive than Joe Biden administration's containment and concessions. Meanwhile, from an operational perspective, the Israeli Air Force's action in Iran about two months ago created an unprecedented opportunity to strike nuclear facilities.
Israel severely damaged Iran's air defense systems and proved it could overcome them. Moreover, the bombing of Iran's missile stockpiles and manufacturing plants will greatly limit its ability to retaliate against US allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel.
The collapse of the Assad regime and Israel's severe blow to Hezbollah have deprived Iran of defensive and deterrent leverage it built over decades. These developments and circumstances factor into Israel's consideration to exploit the window of opportunity and address the Iranian nuclear issue in the near future.
