Recent optimism surrounding hostage negotiations has given way to mounting frustration as Israeli officials reveal significant obstacles in their dealings with Hamas – specifically with Mohammed Sinwar's approach to the talks.
Sources close to the negotiations paint a picture of deliberate obstruction, describing how Yahya Sinwar's brother has consistently misled mediators over weeks, stonewalling requests for hostage lists and withdrawing from previously reached agreements. Security and political officials expressed deep concern over Mohammed's handling of negotiations on Hamas' behalf.
Two critical roadblocks persist: Hamas' continued refusal to provide a list of hostages for initial release, and disagreements over the prisoner exchange ratio and deportation terms.
Israeli officials emphasize that the hostage list represents a fundamental prerequisite for progress, and Hamas' refusal to provide it effectively prevents discussion of other contested issues. The initial optimism expressed by Israeli ministers, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has collided with Hamas' calculated approach to negotiating the hostages' fate.
The war's conclusion remains another contentious point. Despite initially indicating a willingness to set aside this demand to start talks, Hamas now insists on including a pathway to end the conflict in any agreement.
As reported earlier this week, security officials have privately told ministers that entering into the first phase of a deal would likely lead to its eventual completion to secure all hostages' return. Cabinet ministers appear increasingly willing to accept the heavy costs involved in such a deal, but they remain opposed to ending the war – which could once again become a major obstacle to reaching an agreement.
Areas of progress do exist: agreement has been reached on releasing those meeting basic humanitarian criteria and on expanding aid provisions. The positioning of IDF forces during any ceasefire also appears to have preliminary consensus.
A senior cabinet minister revealed to Israel Hayom that while several issues under discussion could lead to a breakthrough, each also carries the potential to derail negotiations entirely. Both parties are mindful of Trump's upcoming January 20 inauguration, with Hamas concerned about deteriorating conditions and Israel anticipating stronger support for increasing pressure on Hamas – potentially allowing hostage recovery without current Biden administration constraints.
