The fall of Bashar Assad's regime is nothing short of astounding: it's not every day we witness the justified end of a ruler responsible for some of the worst atrocities of the 21st century.
The swiftness of the collapse and the relative absence of fighting only amplifies the astonishment. Western (and likely Eastern) intelligence agencies were caught unprepared by the disintegration of the Syrian army that led to the regime's collapse.
For Israeli intelligence, this serves as a crucial wake-up call: while they weren't expected to know every detail about rebel organizations, they should have better assessed the Syrian establishment's weakness. The experts at the Military Intelligence Directorate and the Mossad would do well to concentrate their best minds and resources to avoid being surprised again in areas of particular concern to Israel.
There are numerous such areas of concern. The drama unfolding in Syria will create ripple effects not only within Syria itself but across the Middle East and beyond. While the regime's collapse and the rise of an extreme Sunni force present opportunities for Israel and its allies, they also harbor significant risks.
The immediate concern is the Golan Heights. The IDF moved into the demilitarized zone Sunday, securing positions on the Syrian Hermon to improve future positioning. This continues the fortification efforts in the sector that have been ongoing for several months, aimed at preventing Oct. 7-style infiltrations primarily using pickup trucks. Deep trenches have been dug, which will likely now be reinforced with additional forces and resources, including a permanent presence in the Syrian Golan – at least until the situation in Syria stabilizes and the new authority's intentions become clear.
While Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the organization that has taken control of Syria, seemingly has no immediate interest in Israel and faces greater challenges before confronting the region's strongest military force, the past 14 months have taught Israel to take no chances. This explains the attacks two nights ago on various targets in Syria, where there were concerns about assets falling into rebel hands, including weapons stockpiles and armament production facilities. For those who may have forgotten, Syria once held the world's largest chemical weapons arsenal. Although most of it was removed, the expertise and specialists remained in Syria, and no one can predict how the new regime might behave if it acquires non-conventional capabilities. Monitoring these capabilities and destroying them if necessary must be Israel's top priority, alongside ensuring that the rebels don't produce additional armaments that could challenge Israel in the future.
The new ruler
There are additional concerns. Most prominent is Jordan's future, already struggling with unstable governance and numerous internal problems (in last month's kingdom elections, the Muslim Brotherhood achieved a record high of more than 20% in parliament). Many forces will likely now seek to extend the momentum southward to Jordan, undermining its authority from both within and without. Israel must prevent this, as having a global jihad-affiliated government on its longest eastern border – even if its leader tries to present a moderate facade – could become a security nightmare that must be prevented by all means, including active military assistance to Jordan to prevent its collapse.
Following this, it's likely that other Sunni regimes in the region are now fearful – from Egypt, which sees the Muslim Brotherhood gaining momentum following Erdogan's victory – the patron of Syria's rebels – to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. If just a week ago their biggest perceived challenge was Iran, they now face an additional threat from extreme Sunni forces posing their most significant challenge in a decade.
Furthermore, it's unclear whether efforts to unite Syria and Iraq will now emerge (the organization's name, al-Sham, hints at this), and what will become of the numerous quiet supporters of global jihad who were suppressed a decade ago across the Middle East and worldwide. Is Europe and the world facing a new wave of terrorism that will force them to return to fighting in the Middle East, contrary to their stated plans (including yesterday) to let matters in Syria run their course?
The new ruler of Syria, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani (whose family origins trace to the Golan – another cause for concern), will likely first seek to consolidate his control over Syria. He faces numerous challenges along the way, as the country is now torn between various forces – Sunnis, Alawites, Druze, and Kurds. This division works in Israel's favor, as it will surely seek allies among them. Some, like the Kurds and Druze, are natural allies, though Sunni organizations demonstrated considerable pragmatism a decade ago when they covertly cooperated with Israel for mutual benefit.
Pushing Iran into a corner
Alongside these headaches, the current drama also presents significant opportunities. Chief among them is the breaking of Iran's ring of fire around Israel, of which Syria was the cornerstone.
The Iranians transported weapons through Syria by air, sea, and land, used its facilities to produce and store armaments, and essentially treated it as their own – in return for saving Assad's regime in the previous decade. Now they've lost not only a central foothold but also Hezbollah's main supply route, which is already at its lowest point in history. If Israel can maintain the ceasefire agreement reached two weeks ago and prevent Hezbollah from returning to southern Lebanon and rebuilding its strength, we might be at the beginning of a new era in Lebanon as well.
However, pushing Iran into a corner also carries risks: it might be tempted to break toward nuclear capability, based on its large stockpile of enriched uranium (which experts say is sufficient for approximately 10.5 bombs). Israel must cooperate with the US to ensure this doesn't happen, and, if necessary, take military action to further deter Iran. The Americans will likely wait for the administration change on Jan. 20, but even the outgoing administration will want to fulfill its commitment to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capabilities during its watch.
The collapse of the Iranian axis, and particularly Iran's failure to assist Assad, signaled that in times of crisis, it abandons its friends. Russia behaved similarly due to its war in Ukraine, and it too is losing most of its influence in the Middle East. If the US knows how to leverage this into its own influence, the moderate axis will strengthen further in the face of its current challenges.
Inexperience and chaos
These dramatic upheavals find Israel in the midst of an ongoing internal turmoil, with the defense establishment and its leaders under constant attack from government and coalition members. This occurs while the defense system is in the hands of an inexperienced defense minister, and the prime minister is preoccupied with efforts to postpone his testimony in his trial.
The letter cabinet members sent to the court demanding the testimony's postponement might have been logical, had this very forum – which now speaks loftily in the name of national security – not abdicated its responsibility and ignored the warnings presented before Oct. 7.
