The large Latino turnout for Donald Trump shatters misconceptions about America's fast-growing minority and proves its significance for US relations with Israel, an expert on Hispanic media says.
Trump won 46% of the Hispanic vote, a sharp increase since 2020, and the most for a Republican presidential candidate. Their support came despite Trump's harsh immigration rhetoric and offensive remarks about Puerto Rico by a comedian warming up the crowd at his rally ahead of the election.
For a hot minute, political analysts held their breath, thinking this could cost Trump the Hispanic vote, especially after some Latino celebrities expressed outrage over the remarks and backlash appeared imminent. But voters had more pressing concerns on their minds.
"Latinos made a powerful statement by voting for priority issues this election over upset emotions," said Leah Soibel, CEO of a "Fuente Latina", a leading Hispanic media non-profit organization.
Democratic strategists were shocked by the election results. In part because the outcome splintered long-held assumptions that the Democratic Party is home for Hispanic voters due to its positions on minority issues. Others assumed Trump's strict border and migration policies would repel immigrant families from voting for him. But the realities of US Latinos today are more nuanced, and Trump was victorious even in border towns with large Hispanic populations.
"They saw diverse communities as a single group and imposed their own belief systems on us without bothering to listen," Soibel said.
Not a monolithic bloc
US Hispanic voters are not a monolithic bloc. They represent a wide kaleidoscope of some 65 million people, spanning an array of cultures with distinct heritage and histories. However, Latinos, both before and after the election, often cited the high cost of living, job security, mass unchecked migration, crime, and personal safety when discussing the core reasons for casting their votes. These issues were front and center in the Republican campaign.
The Latino-wide swing toward Trump shows his promise to "make America affordable again," resonated above all other concerns, like abortion rights, that were central to the Democrats' election messaging. This wasn't a permanent endorsement of the Republicans, however, and the party shouldn't take unconditional Hispanic support for granted – and neither should Israel.
American journalists had much to say about the Latino vote in the days after the election and what it meant for their country, but Israelis may wonder what this could mean for Israel and its relationship with its most important ally.
Hispanics are a rapidly growing demographic in the US. According to a 2020 census, over 19% of Americans identify as Latino and they are projected to comprise 30% of the country in about two decades. While Trump did not secure the entirety of the Hispanic vote, he achieved a historic share of their ballots. More significantly, this election underscored a turning point in US politics and political campaigning that highlights the growing influence of the Latino community. As such, their role in shaping American policy – and the relationship with Israel – will be even more substantial in the coming years. Clues to the shared US-Israel future are already on display.
Within a week of his victory, Trump tapped a Cuban-American, Senator Marco Rubio, for secretary of state. Rubio is known as a staunch supporter of Israel and has made his opinions against Hamas very clear. Israeli flags are a common sight outside residences and businesses in some areas of Miami, Rubio's hometown.
But that sentiment isn't uniform across Florida or US-Latino communities nationwide. Many Latino students have joined their peers on American streets and campuses to condemn the world's only Jewish state while ignoring other conflicts. Meanwhile, some Hispanic activists are increasingly promoting anti-Israel resolutions across school boards, city councils, and public forums nationwide.
Undecided about Israel
While those voices are getting louder, a recent poll shows Hispanics are still mostly undecided about Israel. "Hispanics can be strong allies of Israel, but it's a two-way street," Soibel said, whose organization commissioned the survey. Significant shifts regarding American views on Israel have been simmering for years, with younger people supporting Palestinians in seemingly larger numbers and more aggressive ways than previous generations.
Israel's adversaries are both fueling and exploiting these trends – investing in top American universities and supporting influential Qatari and Iranian Spanish-language media aimed at young US Hispanics. Their narratives are clearly gaining traction.
Israel's diplomatic and media energies have long been directed elsewhere. "Regardless of where you stand politically, cementing real relationships with Hispanics is critical," Soibel said. "The events of the past year illustrate just how important true allyship is for Israel and diaspora Jews," she said.
