Israel is intensifying its military campaign in Beirut, targeting Hezbollah's strategic assets while parallel diplomatic tracks gain momentum. Following the submission of a draft agreement to Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who forwarded it to Hezbollah and Iranian leadership for review, Israeli forces have struck dozens of targets in the Dahieh district, including weapons storage facilities, production sites, command centers, and vital infrastructure.
While expressing optimism about potential progress, Berri's statements to local media revealed substantial remaining challenges. "Donald Trump has authorized Hochstein to pursue a ceasefire in Lebanon, and Israel seeks to end the conflict," the senior Lebanese official noted.
"Israel's military operational freedom in Lebanon is excluded from the agreement. This point is non-negotiable and not open for discussion. Lebanon has proposed several amendments and ideas for American consideration. Consensus remains elusive regarding the international oversight committee for Resolution 1701 implementation and the scope of multinational force deployment." Berri, speaking as Hezbollah's representative in the talks, characterized the period as "decisive days."
Lebanese sources have disclosed the following elements from the ceasefire proposal draft, representing primarily Beirut's negotiating position:
The proposed framework envisions a graduated deployment of Lebanese military forces to the south, beginning with 5,000 troops as the exclusive authorized armed presence. The plan calls for enhanced UNIFIL presence alongside a complete IDF withdrawal. Sources indicate the draft includes assurances against Israeli military actions in Lebanon, though specific conditions remain unclear. It was also stated that discussions regarding the land border would begin two months after the ceasefire, overseen by a trilateral committee including Israel, Lebanon, and UNIFIL.
Supervisory committee
Security analysts identify significant vulnerabilities in Beirut's proposed arrangement. The Lebanese military's composition includes substantial Shiite representation with known Hezbollah sympathies or affiliations. Expectations of weapons confiscation or prevention of arms trafficking by these forces appear unrealistic. UNIFIL's track record demonstrates limited effectiveness, being occasionally hesitant to attribute attacks to Hezbollah explicitly.
The proposed guarantees against Israeli military action and complete withdrawal present additional complications. Such terms would severely hamper Resolution 1701's implementation and compromise security arrangements for the evacuated Israeli northern communities. Experts anticipate Hezbollah would eventually reestablish positions south of the Litani River and rebuild its capabilities, effectively rendering the resolution inoperative.
US envoy Amos Hochstein's anticipated arrival in Beirut via Paris later this week is expected to address these concerns. According to Al-Akhbar, a publication with ties to Hezbollah, Lebanese officials seek clarification primarily regarding the committee that will supervise the implementation of Resolution 1701. Beirut particularly objects to British and German participation and expresses concerns about the committee's executive authority, essentially opposing any international body capable of meaningful enforcement.
Operational momentum
Israel's elimination of Mohammad Afif, Hezbollah's longtime communications chief and founding member from the early 1980s, alongside other apparatus officials, demonstrates continued operational momentum. Despite recent successes, significant leadership targets remain, contradicting perceptions of diminished capabilities.
Ali Tabtabai's emergence as operations chief represents a critical development. Wanted by US authorities for commanding forces in Syria and Yemen during civil conflicts supporting pro-Iranian militias, Tabtabai previously oversaw Radwan force training. He assumes leadership following the elimination of Fouad Shaker, Ibrahim Akil, and Ali Karaki.
The target list includes Abu Ali Rada, commanding southern Lebanon regional operations, and Mohammad Haidar, a Nasrallah adviser and Jihad Council member involved in Iran-Lebanon weapons trafficking.
Intelligence assessments suggest senior Hezbollah leadership maintains presence in Beirut and Dahieh, despite enhanced security measures. The Lebanese capital continues functioning as the organization's operational hub, though adaptations are evident. Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's new Secretary-General, now pre-records speeches, while Mohammad Afif had relocated to local Baath Party facilities. The organization has intensified information security, detaining individuals attempting to document strike locations.
This pressure puts Hezbollah's leadership in a dilemma: whether to continue insisting on conditions for an agreement full of loopholes or to back down while senior officials who could rehabilitate the organization remain. Notably absent from current Beirut discussions: demands for a Gaza ceasefire.
