The period between Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's election victory and his White House inauguration spans nearly three months, during which Israel may face unprecedented diplomatic challenges. With Democrats still at the helm and outgoing President Joe Biden seeking to cement his legacy, Israel finds itself in an increasingly complex position as the current war continues.
History offers a telling precedent: When former President Barack Obama's term was ending and Trump had won his first presidential election, the outgoing administration left Israel with an unwelcome surprise. The US broke with tradition by withholding its Security Council veto on anti-Israel resolutions, leading to the passage of a measure condemning settlement activity. This December 16, 2016 decision marked Obama's parting gesture after years of tense relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Jerusalem, mindful of this precedent, is now on high alert. Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon warned earlier this week about the potential weakening of US support at the Security Council. In a chamber where Arab nations and Israel's critics hold a decisive majority, the risks are substantial – ranging from proposed arms embargoes against Israel to resolutions advancing Palestinian statehood or full UN membership, or demands for ending the war on terms unfavorable to Israel.
A crucial test looms within days. The White House has pressed Netanyahu to increase humanitarian aid to northern Gaza, expressing continued dissatisfaction with current efforts. If significant changes don't materialize quickly, the administration may feel emboldened to impose conditions on Israel regarding the war's conclusion. Should direct pressure prove insufficient, they might pursue their objectives through the Security Council.
Biden, who has been considered a pro-Israel president and whose legacy will be judged by history, seeks to leave his diplomatic mark in the coming months. The Middle East situation presents more opportunities than other recent conflicts, making agreements on Gaza and Lebanon likely priorities.
Netanyahu, who yesterday accelerated the process of removing Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant from the defense ministry, may navigate these challenges effectively – though the situation remains complex. More optimistically, Trump's imminent return to the White House in roughly two months could serve as leverage in dealings with Arab nations and terrorist organizations, as these actors anticipate a potential shift in US policy toward the regional conflict.
This dynamic might, for the first time, lead Hamas to consider agreements without demanding complete war termination, while Lebanon could show unprecedented flexibility in negotiations. The transition from a moderate Democratic administration to an unpredictable president could significantly influence the terms of current agreements.
