Iranian military planners are preparing an extensive retaliatory strike against Israel that could employ enhanced warheads and sophisticated weaponry, according to Iranian and Arab officials familiar with the planning who spoke to The Wall Street Journal.
The warnings emerge in defiance of American diplomatic pressure to avoid escalation, though analysts remain divided on whether these signals represent concrete intentions or strategic messaging. The October 26 Israeli strike has left Iran's air defense network severely compromised, potentially increasing the stakes of any retaliatory action.
Future Israeli military responses would be calibrated based on the magnitude and success of Iran's threatened offensive, sources tell The Wall Street Journal. While Israeli forces have previously avoided striking Iran's economic and nuclear assets, officials indicate this restraint could shift depending on Iran's actions. The involvement of Iran's conventional military forces marks a significant shift, diplomatic sources revealed to The Wall Street Journal, citing the casualties sustained in Israel's attack – four military personnel and one civilian. This unprecedented coordination between regular forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps suggests an expanded operational scope, though not necessarily direct troop deployment.
A senior Iranian official, speaking to The Wall Street Journal, emphasized the military's obligation to respond. "Our military lost people, so they need to respond," the official stated, adding that the operation might utilize Iraqi territory and target Israeli military installations "but much more aggressively than last time."
Breaking from previous patterns of drone and missile-only attacks, Iranian strategists are considering a broader range of military options, according to officials who spoke with The Wall Street Journal. The planned response could feature missiles carrying enhanced warheads, surpassing the capabilities demonstrated in Iran's October 1 strike, which deployed Emad and Ghadr missiles alongside advanced Kheibar Shekan and Fattah systems.
Iranian planning takes into account the US political calendar, sources tell The Wall Street Journal. While avoiding actions during Tuesday's American elections, Iran intends to execute its response before the January presidential inauguration. US intelligence assessments indicate Iran's preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, the official noted.
Diplomatic representatives from Egypt, Bahrain, and Oman informed The Wall Street Journal that Iranian officials outlined these response scenarios despite repeated US warnings. UN Ambassador Linda Thomas–Greenfield recently cautioned of "severe consequences" for any Iranian aggression against Israel or US interests.
"We believe this should be the end of the direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran," Thomas–Greenfield declared.
Iran's diplomatic stance has undergone a rapid transformation, according to regional sources speaking to The Wall Street Journal. Initial signals of restraint quickly gave way to more aggressive rhetoric. A high–ranking Iranian general promised an "unimaginable response" on Friday, followed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's Saturday warning of a "tooth–breaking response."
Western intelligence sources indicate ongoing internal debates within Iranian leadership regarding response options, including whether to strike directly or through proxy forces. Israeli intelligence shares this assessment and has warned of potentially devastating counterstrikes.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu highlighted Israel's successful targeting of Iran's "soft underbelly" while dismissing Tehran's "haughty words." "Today, Israel has greater freedom of action than ever before," Netanyahu stated. "We can go anywhere that we need to in Iran."
Despite US efforts to limit Israel's October 26 operation to military targets, Arab officials express growing concern about potential Israeli escalation in future operations. Netanyahu recently reaffirmed that preventing Iranian nuclear weapons capability remains Israel's "supreme objective." Iranian authorities continue to deny any nuclear weapons program.
Israel's recent military operation demonstrated potential strategic flexibility, striking a facility previously connected to nuclear research. Satellite imagery analysts noted an additional strike on what experts described as a minor target at Iran's Abadan refinery.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared Sunday that Iran must respond to Israel's attack, though he suggested "the type and intensity of our response" might be influenced by potential ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.
While American forces weren't directly involved in Israel's Iranian operation, US military assets would likely support Israeli defenses against retaliation. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has directed additional B–52 Stratofortress bombers, tanker aircraft and Navy destroyers to the Middle East, the Pentagon announced Friday. These reinforcements coincide with the departure of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, marking the first absence of a US carrier in the region since Hamas's October 2023 attack on Israel.
