To understand the magnitude of current changes in American politics, we must first appreciate the historical foundation being shaken. During the Great Depression of the 1930s, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt masterfully constructed a coalition of minorities that would reshape American society through welfare state principles. This alliance united Jewish Americans, Catholic immigrants of Italian, Irish and Polish descent, and African American leaders – even managing to include the segregationist South.
This coalition's impact on US-Israel relations cannot be overstated. It powered successive Democratic victories – Roosevelt's four terms, followed by Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson – establishing patterns of bilateral support that would define our relationship for generations. Johnson's implementation of Roosevelt's vision through civil rights legislation demonstrated the coalition's transformative power in American society.
Now, 90 years after Roosevelt sketched his grand vision, Harris faces a critical challenge that demands Jerusalem's attention. Except for Black women, every component of this historic alliance shows signs of shifting toward Donald Trump. For Israel's strategic planners, this realignment demands careful analysis.
The Latino-American vote particularly illustrates this transformation. This group, which effectively inherited the political space once occupied by Catholic immigrants, comprises 19% of eligible voters. Yet Harris commands only 55% of their support – a dramatic decline from Barack Obama's 70% in 2012. In crucial swing states like Arizona and Nevada, where Latinos represent 30% and 27% of voters respectively, this shift could prove decisive.
The reasons for this erosion reveal deeper changes in American society. Many Latino voters, traditionally conservative on social issues, reject Harris' firm stance on abortion rights. Her campaign's emphasis on the dangers Trump poses to democratic institutions, while perhaps valid, fails to resonate with voters who are more concerned about immediate economic challenges. Nevada's status as the state with America's highest unemployment rate exemplifies these economic pressures.
Perhaps most telling is Harris's position on immigration – an issue that mirrors some of the complexities we face in Israel. Despite Trump's harsh rhetoric against Mexican immigrants, Harris finds herself vulnerable due to her actual enforcement record as California's attorney general. Her pledge to add thousands of border officers and adoption of tougher rhetoric has effectively abandoned her original proposals for gradual, humane immigration reform. This has made her appear a partial partner to Trump's approach, erasing crucial distinctions on this core issue.
The shifts within the African American community – another pillar of this historic coalition – warrant particular attention from Israeli analysts. In crucial swing states like Michigan (particularly Detroit) and Georgia (especially Atlanta), only 58% of Black men support Harris, compared to 72% of Black women. This dramatic decline from Obama-era support levels suggests fundamental changes in American political alignment.
COVID-19's devastating impact on Black communities has created an opening for Trump's business-focused message. His promises to reverse globalization by bringing back overseas industries and his credible-seeming pledges to immediately deport illegal immigrants resonate strongly with working-class Black voters concerned about job security. These economic anxieties transcend traditional political loyalties.
The youth vote presents its own complexities. While Harris leads Trump by about 20% among voters under 30, historically low turnout in this demographic limits its impact. More concerning for Jerusalem is the ongoing debate among young Americans about whether Harris should distance herself further from Israel – a discussion that signals potential long-term challenges for our bilateral relationship.
In this shifting landscape, only the Jewish component of Roosevelt's coalition maintains its traditional liberal democratic commitments. However, except for Pennsylvania, the Jewish vote in current battleground states has become largely marginal. The era when Florida, Illinois, and New Jersey could swing an election through their Jewish constituencies has passed.
From Jerusalem's perspective, these fundamental shifts in American political dynamics demand strategic reassessment. While Harris' path to victory remains possible despite lacking solid support from all major minority groups, Israel must prepare for a new era in US politics. The transformation of Roosevelt's historic coalition isn't merely an American domestic matter – it represents a strategic inflection point that could reshape the international environment in which Israel operates.
