The current events unfolding in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip mark a crucial turning point in shaping the rules of the new world order. The Middle East, a key area of conflict and influence, extends beyond the immediate terror actors like Hamas and Hezbollah. These organizations are essentially puppets controlled by regional powers aiming to change the game's rules and establish the "axis of resistance" as a major player in the region.
While it is challenging to predict the exact outcomes in southern Lebanon and Gaza, the situation is not solely about military conflicts. It is intrinsically linked to ongoing negotiations, both public and private. What is certain is that a new strategic reality is emerging in the Middle East. This shift must be understood within a broader geostrategic and geopolitical framework, including other regional hotspots like Sudan, Libya, Yemen, and the Horn of Africa.
One potential scenario is Israel successfully neutralizing threats from Hezbollah. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, "The tentacles of that octopus are severely wounded – now's the time to aim for the head." Israel has made significant progress, notably eliminating key Hezbollah leaders. This will inevitably impact the organization's effectiveness and decision-making capabilities, requiring considerable time to restructure and fill the leadership void. Despite ongoing fierce fighting in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah's combat infrastructure remains largely functional, making its complete elimination through leadership targeting alone unlikely.
By limiting Hezbollah's threat and neutralizing the Houthis, Israel may proceed to the next strategic phase: dismantling Iran's nuclear infrastructure to fully eliminate the threats facing Israel. Netanyahu's government might view the current climate as ideal for this move, considering both combat dynamics and the curbed response capabilities of Iran's proxies.
Additionally, unwavering American support, driven by US presidential election calculations, may embolden Israel as the Biden administration seeks to demonstrate resolute backing ahead of the November vote.
From Israel's cost-benefit perspective, there's a temptation to target Iranian nuclear facilities. However, Israel may not rush until conditions are fully prepared. A key prerequisite would be provoking Iran into significant attacks against Israel, providing legitimacy for a proportionate response to address perceived threats.
Israel has effectively leveraged Hamas' October 7 terror attack to pursue broader, more comprehensive goals beyond the narrow concept of victory sought by terrorist militias. This reflects the disparity between Israel's deep strategic thinking and the short-term, media-oriented victories pursued by militant groups.
The likely outcome is a new Middle Eastern landscape that Israel did not necessarily seek but successfully shaped and expedited by exploiting the conditions created by Iranian-backed terror militias in Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, and Iraq.
The emerging rules in the Middle East may, for the first time in decades, exclude non-state actors, with Iranian proxy organizations potentially facing obsolescence. However, this outcome depends on regional and international efforts to complement Israel's military actions with political and diplomatic initiatives. These conflicts will ultimately be resolved through negotiations, presenting a rare opportunity to address the regional chaos caused by terrorist militias that not only threaten Israel but also undermine the sovereignty of countries like Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
