Israel is grappling with a looming shortage of interceptor missiles as it strengthens its air defenses against potential attacks from Iran and its proxies, according to industry executives, former military officials, and analysts, Financial Times reports.
The United States is rushing to help fill gaps in Israel's protective shield, announcing on Sunday the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile battery. This move comes as Israel is expected to launch a retaliatory strike against Iran, risking further regional escalation.
"Israel's munitions issue is serious," said Dana Stroul, a former senior US defense official with responsibility for the Middle East. "If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hezbollah joins in too, Israel air defenses will be stretched," she added, noting that US stockpiles are not limitless. "The US can't continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point."
Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, a state-owned company that manufactures Arrow interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles, said that production lines are running triple shifts to meet demand. "Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations," Levy said, adding that the time required to produce interceptor missiles is "not a matter of days."
Israel's triple-layered air defenses have successfully intercepted the majority of incoming drones and missiles fired by Iran and its proxies from across the region. The Iron Dome system has shot down short-range rockets and drones fired by Hamas from Gaza, while David's Sling has intercepted heavier rockets from Lebanon, and the Arrow system has blocked ballistic missiles from Iran.
The Israeli military claimed in April that, with the help of the US and other allies, it achieved a 99 percent interception rate against an Iranian salvo of 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. However, Israel had less success fending off a second Iranian barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles fired on October 1, with almost three dozen missiles hitting Israel's Nevatim air base, according to open-source intelligence analysts.
The newly deployed US-supplied Thaad battery, designed to shoot down ballistic missiles, will complement Israel's Arrow system. This reinforcement comes as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government plans its response to Iran's missile barrage in October, which Tehran said was to avenge the killing of leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah.
Lebanon-based Hezbollah has demonstrated its ability to strike at least 60km into Israel despite weeks of Israeli attacks on its commanders and arsenal. On Sunday, a Hezbollah attack drone killed four Israeli soldiers at a military base in the center of the country.
"We are not seeing Hezbollah's full capability yet. It has only been firing at around a tenth of its estimated prewar launching capacity, a few hundred rockets a day instead of as many as 2,000," said Assaf Orion, a former Israeli brigadier general and head of strategy at the Israel Defense Forces. "Some of that gap is a choice by Hezbollah not to go full out, and some of it is due to degradation by the IDF ... But Hezbollah has enough left to mount a strong operation," Orion added. "Haifa and northern Israel are still on the receiving end of rocket and drone attacks almost every day."
Analysts told the Financial Times that defense planners and Israel's AI-powered air defenses are being forced to prioritize which areas to protect. More than 20,000 rockets and missiles have been fired at Israel over the past year from Gaza and Lebanon alone, according to official Israeli figures.
"During the October 1 attack, there was a sense the IDF reserved some Arrow interceptors in case Iran fired its next salvo at Tel Aviv," said Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel's Ministry of Defense. "It's only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritize how they are deployed."
