A new New York Times/Siena College poll has found Former President Donald Trump narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters nationwide, raising questions about the durability of Harris's recent surge in popularity.
The poll shows Trump ahead by one percentage point, with 48 percent support compared to Harris's 47 percent. This marks the first time Trump has led in a major nonpartisan national survey in approximately a month. The poll surveyed 1,695 voters nationwide from September 3 to 6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
The New York Times cautions that the results should be viewed skeptically, given the lack of confirmation from other recent polls. However, several factors could explain a potential decline in Harris's support. The vice president had been riding high on a wave of positive coverage following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race in July and throughout the Democratic convention in August. It is possible that in the past two uneventful weeks, her numbers dropped.
Highest-rated pollster in the country and a large sample size, too. Fortunately for Harris she has the debate this week and none of this will matter if she has a good night.https://t.co/X77LYVdtVq
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 8, 2024
The timing of the poll may also contribute to its unique findings. There have been few high-quality surveys conducted since the Democratic convention, with Labor Day weekend and the upcoming debate potentially affecting polling schedules.
