The phrase "Maybe today, maybe tomorrow, maybe in a week" echoes the tense anticipation among Israelis waiting for Iran's response to the assassinations of Hezbollah's chief of staff in Beirut and Hamas's political leader in Tehran. While the enemy completes its preparations for a possible attack, Haifa - marked by Hezbollah as a primary target - prepares for the worst-case scenario: extensive rocket fire of about a thousand rockets per day over an extended period, alongside barrages of precision missiles and explosive drones.
Two months ago, Hezbollah's media arm released footage of Haifa and the Krayot area taken from the terror organization's reconnaissance drone. The footage included the Haifa Naval Base, missile ships, the Rafael defense company plant, Iron Dome installations, rocket storage sites, and other military facilities, along with large civilian shopping centers and densely populated neighborhoods. As part of its preparations, the IDF reinforced air defenses in the area. Additionally, measures were implemented to disrupt location services, complicating navigation in Haifa as much as they hinder Hezbollah's ability to precisely target sites in Carmel and its surroundings.
For many years, the ammonia tank of Haifa Chemicals was a prime target for Hezbollah. In 2016, on the anniversary of the death of Imad Mughniyeh, Hezbollah's military chief and the organization's "number 2," Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah publicly declared, "The ammonia tank is our atomic bomb." According to assessments, a direct hit on the tank could have resulted in the deaths of thousands of Haifa and Krayot residents.
The tank, which held approximately 12,000 tons of ammonia, was exposed to potential direct hits. However, after a long struggle and following decisions by the Supreme Court and the Ministry of Environmental Protection, it was finally closed in September 2017 and relocated to southern Israel. Nevertheless, residents of the Haifa Bay area cannot breathe a sigh of relief quite yet, as ammonia was not the only danger: About 2.5 million tons of around 1,500 hazardous materials, including bromine, chlorine, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and ethylene, are still stored there, posing a substantial potential risk during wartime.
The IDF is likely aware of the extent of the danger. At the beginning of the month, the Home Front Command's Northern Headquarters instructed factories within the rocket fire range from Lebanon to empty their ammonia and hazardous materials stocks. One of these factories is Unilever's Strauss ice cream plant in Acre, which had to halt ice cream production due to the cessation of ammonia use. Another 27 factories within 40 kilometers of the border were instructed to minimize the amount of hazardous materials they store. According to the information we have, other factories at similar distances from the border have not received such instructions.
Haifa Municipality's Security and Emergency Services Department recently completed the installation of a system enabling the remote opening of all public shelters in the city in case of emergency. Simultaneously, the municipality is preparing for scenarios of prolonged power outages by installing generators in public and school shelters. So far, more than thirty generators have been installed, ensuring continuous electricity supply even during extended outages. Wireless routers have also been installed in underground parking lots designated as emergency shelters for residents.
Two Scenarios
It is not easy for Haifa residents to forget the harsh precedent of the Second Lebanon War when Hezbollah launched hundreds of heavy rockets at the city. The name of the "HaShmona" train station in the lower city commemorates the most tragic event in the city during that war—a deadly rocket strike that killed eight workers in the railway's maintenance garage.
At that time, Nasrallah coined the phrase "Baada Baada Haifa" ("Beyond, beyond Haifa"). While he may have intended to emphasize the word "beyond," he still mentioned "Haifa." This time, too, the city might find itself at the center of a prolonged missile attack.
It is difficult to predict which target in the city Hezbollah might choose, but Tal Berry, head of the research department at the Alma Center for Research on Northern Security Challenges, differentiates between two scenarios: a retaliatory attack and a full-scale war. "If Hezbollah opts to strike Haifa in a targeted retaliation, it will likely aim at an economic, civilian, or military target in the city, such as the civilian port, the airport, or one of the defense industries.
"But in a full-scale war, the assessment is that the entire area from Haifa northward will be the focal point of the attack. This terror army has the capability to launch missiles and rockets to every part of the country, and on paper, they could even reach Eilat. It is impossible to know if they will use these means. The reasonable assessment is that for about ten days, Hezbollah will launch approximately 3,000 mortars, rockets, missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles daily from Lebanon.
"Not all will hit their targets. A certain percentage will be duds, others will fall in Lebanese territory, and others will be intercepted. But a significant number will strike, and it will not be a small amount. According to our assessment, in a full-scale war, it will be difficult to maintain normal life during the first week or two across the entire area north of Haifa, including in Haifa itself."
Colonel (Res.) Yair Zilberman, director of the Security and Emergency Services Department at Haifa Municipality, says he is preparing for severe scenarios. "During the Second Lebanon War, about 300 rockets were fired at the city, and a hundred of them hit. In a full-scale war scenario, we are talking about the launch of hundreds of rockets daily.
"To cope with such a situation, we have tripled the number of public shelters, prepared office building parking lots as mass shelters, and ensured that every shelter is equipped with a generator and wireless network. We also rehearsed food supply to these shelters. In real time, we will also open protected schools and kindergartens to accommodate residents.
"There might be power outages in the city, so we've deployed generators in a significant number of public shelters. As part of the lessons learned from 2006, each area of the city has its own command center, and there is a main crisis management center that will centralize all the information and manage the city in an emergency. We are preparing for the worst and praying for the best."
Former Mayor Einat Kalisch-Rotem initiated a project to equip private building shelters. Is this initiative continuing under the current mayor, Yona Yahav?
"We received a dedicated budget from the Ministry of Housing, and with it, we renovated and upgraded communal shelters in socially and economically disadvantaged areas. Another budget is expected to arrive soon to continue the process of equipping the shelters."
Not Leaving the City
Yossi Almagor (45) lived in the city during the Second Lebanon War. "It was unpleasant to be in Haifa and the Krayot back then. Many people left the city and the north altogether. My parents, who live in the Krayot, also relocated to Tel Aviv. Personally, I didn't leave the city. I lived in Carmel then, which was outside Hezbollah's rocket range, and although there was no Iron Dome at the time, I wasn't worried - because most rockets fell in the lower city and the Hadar neighborhood. Now, the situation is different, not only because the threat has become more tangible and widespread but also because today I live in a more vulnerable area, on the north-facing mountainside."
But Almagor isn't afraid. "I made sure to buy some water packs and food, as instructed by the Home Front Command, but I haven't changed my routine," he says. "I believe that if there's a pinpoint attack, I'll go to the stairwell, which is a relatively protected area. If it's a more prolonged attack, we have a shelter nearby. If it gets really serious, I'll try to move to the complexes the municipality has prepared for extended stays. To me, leaving the city isn't a reasonable option, especially since if there's a large-scale attack, other cities probably won't be safer."
In his neighborhood, the population is diverse: ultra-Orthodox Jews, immigrants from Ethiopia and Russia, and Arab citizens. Only bomb shelters are missing. "You can feel there's less foot traffic in the city, and even the shawarma vendor said he has fewer customers," says Almagor. "But it's not clear if that's due to fear of an attack or because it's the middle of August and everyone is indoors with air conditioning."
Do you feel your city is ready for war?
"Everyone is doing what they need to and are preparing. At the beginning of the war, they established 'Neighbors for Emergencies' here, a volunteer initiative under the municipality's supervision. They trained us to provide first aid and carry out basic search and rescue, so we can provide an initial response. At the same time, public shelters have been equipped, parking lots have been prepared to accommodate many residents, and the city's hospitals are preparing to operate in emergency mode.
"You can't turn the country into a bunker. They've already done everything possible, and now we're waiting. I really hope that when the war starts, the IDF will have enough resources to reduce the rocket threat and quickly take the fight to enemy territory. That's no longer in our hands, but I feel that this waiting period is terrible for everyone. It's better to already be under attack, rather than just waiting for it."
