Two weeks after the elimination of his right-hand man, Fouad Shukr, Hassan Nasrallah finds himself in a quandary regarding retaliation against Israel. Lebanese factions are pressing him to wait for the next round of ceasefire negotiations on Gaza. Conversely, in his latest speech, he committed to a harsh response, emphasizing the importance of preventing an Israeli victory over Hamas.
The problem is that Hezbollah no longer enjoys the element of surprise. In an extreme scenario, the terrorist organization could lose strategic assets developed over years. The rationale was to become a forward position that would deter an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. It's no coincidence that they began evacuating electronic equipment from headquarters in Beirut and relocating precision missiles. In Dahieh, they are well aware of Israel's intelligence and air superiority. The response could cause more harm than good from their perspective.
"Rescuing" Hamas from the IDF
Another challenge concerns Hezbollah's chain of command. The leading candidate to replace Shukr, Hezbollah's "Chief of Staff," was Ibrahim Aqil. As early as 2016, he was a candidate for the senior position after the elimination of Mustafa Badreddine.
However, Ibrahim Aqil manages the southern front along with Ali Karaki, the regional commander. Nasrallah could have promoted Aqil, but his potential replacements have been eliminated: Wissam al-Tawil, who effectively commanded the Radwan force, and two "division commanders," Muhammad Nasser and Abu Talib. In short, a void has been created in the terrorist organization's senior command, and it's unknown if Nasrallah has managed to fill it.
Still, he might prefer to take these risks, if only to impose a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon at the end of an escalation. In other words, to do everything to extricate Hamas from the IDF. It's doubtful he's listening to his collaborators in the Lebanese government. These express overt opposition to the front he opened in the south of the country. For instance, Gebran Bassil, leader of the pro-Syrian Christian party, emphasized: "Yahya Sinwar is the one who started the war with Israel, and he's the one who will decide on its end. We cannot be dependent on his decision."
These statements resonate with the panic currently unfolding in the Land of Cedars. Tens of thousands of residents have left southern Lebanon and begun renting apartments in other areas, triggering a price crisis. Lebanese are complaining about landlords exploiting the situation and blaming Hezbollah for their plight.
Unwelcome in Lebanon
The Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, the Dahieh, is also emptying out. Residents rushed to their cars to flee. The earthquake in central Syria was felt there and interpreted by some as an Israeli attack. It reminded them of the disaster at the port four years ago, in which more than 200 Lebanese were killed.
Even in the corridors of the Iranian government, a deep divide has emerged between those who advocated for a limited response, to avoid leading to an all-out war, and those who called for a more extensive attack than the one in April.
The former belong to the circle of the new President Masoud Pezeshkian, who strives to renew the nuclear deal with the West. This agreement would remove economic sanctions and allow the country to strengthen militarily and politically in the long term. The latter mainly belong to the Revolutionary Guards circle. They want to signal to their regional proxies that they back them in any situation – even if it means risking a regional confrontation and damage to nuclear facilities, due to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The drumbeat of all-out war brings the American envoy, Amos Hochstein, back to Beirut. On Wednesday, he is expected to meet with the Lebanese leadership, including the interim government of Najib Mikati and Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib. This is a last-minute attempt to prevent a widespread confrontation.
It's not certain that Hochstein is aware of the risk he's taking: in Hezbollah-linked media, he's still accused of responsibility for Shukr's assassination. He's described as an "Israeli agent" who passed misleading information suggesting that the IDF did not intend to strike in Beirut after the massacre in Majdal Shams. In any case, Hezbollah sees him as a persona non-grata, and the chance that he will succeed in bringing about any progress before a ceasefire in Gaza is very low.
Sinwar betting on Iran
It seems that even in Gaza, Sinwar identifies the winds of regional confrontation. In recent days, Hamas has increasingly entrenched itself in its positions: first, the terrorist organization called on mediators to pressure Israel to accept the agreement, with a full withdrawal and a permanent ceasefire, then it leaked that no delegation would arrive at the negotiations meeting on Thursday, and then it passed a message to mediators that military activity in Gaza must be stopped first.
On Tuesday, a rocket launch was detected from the Gaza Strip that fell into the sea off the central coast, in another attempt to signal that Hamas' military wing is "functioning as usual," despite the death of most of its terrorists. According to a video from the terrorist organization, the rocket was launched by the Khan Yunis Brigade in response to the evacuation of Gazans in the same area. It appears that the organization fears an IDF operation in the area.
At the beginning of the war, Sinwar hoped that a full convergence of fronts would allow for the destruction of Israel. Now he hopes that such a development will hand him a forced ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on a silver platter – without a hostage deal. In the less favorable scenario from his perspective, he aims for an Israeli agreement to a full withdrawal from Gaza and a de facto end to the war, as part of an agreement that would allow for the long-term rehabilitation of Hamas.
