The United States is pursuing a high-stakes diplomatic gambit to persuade Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to relinquish power, offering amnesty to him and his top lieutenants in exchange for a peaceful transition, according to people familiar with the matter. This bold move comes as overwhelming evidence emerges that Maduro lost last month's election by a significant margin.
As reported by The Wall Street Journal, US officials have discussed pardons for Maduro and key regime figures who face Justice Department indictments. One source indicated that the US has put "everything on the table" to convince Maduro to step down before his term ends in January. Another person familiar with the talks said the US would consider providing guarantees against pursuing extradition for these individuals.
This is brilliant. Yeah you miss out on justice but a comfortable life in anonymity somewhere in Wyoming to avert a bloody civil war is an amazing deal if we can swing it https://t.co/WgYUg23Ymf
— Adrian Bonenberger (@AdrianBonenber1) August 11, 2024
The US placed a $15 million bounty on Maduro in 2020, accusing him of conspiring to flood America with cocaine. This latest diplomatic initiative represents a dramatic shift in approach, driven by the Venezuelan opposition's meticulous documentation of voter tallies showing their candidate, former diplomat Edmundo González, defeated Maduro in a landslide on July 28.
Despite the opposition's efforts, Maduro has maintained his grip on power, jailing thousands of dissidents and tasking the Supreme Court – stacked with his allies – to resolve the election impasse. The strongman's total control over state institutions makes the US proposal a long shot, but it may be the only avenue to force out a leader who has overseen economic collapse, diplomatic isolation, and the exodus of nearly eight million Venezuelans over 11 years of authoritarian rule.
"The US is focusing on carrots, like offering to lift the indictments in exchange for transition talks, rather than sticks like sanctions," said Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council think tank, in comments to The Wall Street Journal.
The talks have reportedly taken place virtually between Jorge Rodríguez, president of Venezuela's congress and a Maduro confidant, and Daniel Erikson, who directs Venezuela policy at the White House National Security Council. US officials have signaled they won't force Western oil companies to leave Venezuela as part of any deal.
The opposition's strategy to document the election results played a crucial role in spurring the US initiative. Opposition leaders, expecting Maduro to manipulate the vote, trained tens of thousands of poll watchers to obtain paper tabulations from voting machines. Their efforts revealed González won by almost 38 percentage points, collecting 7.3 million votes to Maduro's 3.3 million. "We were able to show the world the truth and what had happened in Venezuela," opposition leader María Corina Machado said.
Maduro has called the opposition's strategy a coup and launched a fierce crackdown, arresting over 2,400 dissidents and protesters. He warned, "There will be no forgiveness," and announced plans to build two new prisons for political prisoners.
The regime has also moved to suppress information, blocking X for 10 days and urging Venezuelans to uninstall WhatsApp. Despite the repression, opposition figure Juan Barreto, a former Caracas mayor once aligned with the regime, urged: "This is a moment to remain calm and have nerves of steel."
