Labour is expected to have a clear majority in Parliament, exit polls showed Thursday night after the general election ended, ending Prime Minister Rishi Sunak 18-month term as prime minister in a stinging rebuke to the Conservative Party that has been in power since 2010. As of Friday morning Labour was poised to win more than 400 seats, well above the threshold of 326 needed to command a majority in the House of Commons. The Conservatives were expected to get only about 130 seats, yet the actual number is projected to be even lower.
If these projections hold, Labour leader Keir Starmer will lead Labour to gain over 300 seats, ending the Conservative Party's almost 15-year grip on power during which it has been embroiled in infighting over the kingdom's relationship with the EU.
To the hundreds of Conservative candidates, thousands of volunteers and millions of voters:
Thank you for your hard work, thank you for your support, and thank you for your vote. pic.twitter.com/GcgvI7bImI
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) July 4, 2024
If the exit polls hold, this will force Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who replaced Boris Johnson in 2022 without a general election after the latter faced a party rebellion, to vacate 10 Downing Street as early as this Friday. This would mark the most significant political realignment in the UK since the end of World War II. Starmer will command 170-seat majority in the House of Commons. Historically, changes in government after long periods of one-party rule have often been seen as significant political shifts in the UK. The last time Labour came to power after a long period of Conservative rule was in 1997, under Tony Blair's leadership, which was considered a major political event at the time.
The most dramatic forecasts ahead of the election painted an even more stark picture. One July 2 poll suggests Labour could win an astonishing 484 seats – translating to a 238-seat majority – while the Conservatives might be reduced to 64 seats. Political analysts emphasize that even accounting for potential polling errors, Starmer's Labour appears comfortably on track for a substantial majority.
The international implications of such a decisive Labour victory under Starmer could be far-reaching. A new government with a substantial majority might seek to reset UK-EU relations, reassess the "special relationship" with the United States, and take a more proactive approach to global climate change initiatives. Starmer's potential shift in Britain's foreign policy stance has already caught the attention of international observers and allies.
Regardless of the final tally, Starmer and his team will face a daunting inbox if they secure victory. The challenge of steering post-Brexit Britain through uncertain economic waters while addressing pressing domestic issues will require decisive action and clear policy direction. The new Labour administration would also need to work to restore faith in political institutions after years of division and controversy.
