As Israel continues its operations in Gaza, war tensions are escalating in the north. If the conflict in Lebanon significantly intensifies, Israel will face unprecedented and complex challenges. Israel Hayom reporters shed light on the expected scenarios of high–intensity fighting on two fronts, examining the impacts on the military, society, foreign relations, and economy.
Military Preparedness: Troops strained, but united
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has recently completed its preparations for a war in the northern arena, with senior officials threatening that upon completion of the operation in Rafah, they can focus on the greater threat from the north. However, after nine months of war in Gaza and fighting with Hezbollah, if war breaks out in the coming days, it seems the IDF may not be at its peak strength.
The IDF faces concerns about "ammunition economization" in the event of a severe escalation on the northern border. The fact that the United States, which initially supplied Israel with considerable ammunition, has slowed down shipments and halted the delivery of bombs to the Israeli Air Force, is very worrying for the military and may influence Israel's decision to initiate a war in the north at this time.
But this is nothing compared to the possibility that such a war would generate a new wave of refugees that countries like Turkey or EU members would have to deal with. Europe has already absorbed millions of refugees from Ukraine, and a war now would also come at a very problematic time for the EU and European countries.
Additionally, there's the question of wear and tear on regular and reserve forces. The regular army has been fighting and training for eight and a half months without a break, many reservists have served 100 or 200 days or more in the past year, and psychologically, everyone has gone through challenging experiences that require processing.
Another issue is air defense. The military estimates that air defense systems will not be able to protect all populated areas, so defense will focus on infrastructure vital to the war effort, leaving the civilian home front in Israel vulnerable to unprecedented threats. The only way Israel can deal with this threat is to directly strike not only Hezbollah but Lebanon itself, as a sovereign state from whose territory Israel is being attacked.
Diplomatic challenges
A scenario of a full–scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is certainly a cause for great concern for the international community, especially in the West. The consequences of such a war could lead to further disruption of supply chains and trade, possible increases in fuel prices, and damage to tourism in the region.
But this is nothing compared to the possibility that such a war would generate a new wave of refugees that countries like Turkey or EU members would have to deal with. Europe has already absorbed millions of refugees from Ukraine, and a war now would also come at a very problematic time for the EU and European countries.
Despite promising to back Israel against Hezbollah, even the US administration would be happy to avoid another crisis in the Middle East – just before Election Day.
Healthcare system prepares for evacuation and blackout scenarios
In Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya, patients have been hospitalized for eight months in suboptimal conditions, in a protected structure that accommodates only about 300 hospital beds – less than half of its capacity. Hospitals in Safed and Nahariya have been operating in this mode for months, and this is only part of the health system's preparation for war scenarios in the north.
One of these scenarios is the operation of hospitals as an "isolated island" due to difficulty moving along routes. As part of this preparation, the capabilities of hospitals in the north and south have been strengthened in the field of trauma, including the absorption of experts in required fields – cardiothoracic surgery, neurosurgery, and more.
Health Minister Uriel Busso expressed the extent of preparedness and its importance precisely when he said at a local government conference held earlier this month: "Due to the expanding threats, we are working these days together with the local government on preparing for a blackout scenario, which greatly challenges the system in all matters related to the treatment of patients with special medical needs, including ventilated and respiratory–supported patients. The joint work with the heads of local authorities is an existential need – life-saving, in the full sense of the word."
The mental health system is also preparing for the possibility of escalation. Dr. Shiri Daniels, the national professional director of ERAN (Emotional First Aid) says, "Recently, we have identified a trend of increased distress calls from residents of the north and citizens whose family members and close friends live or serve in the north." NATAL (Israel Trauma and Resiliency Center) says that the number of clinical therapists in their ranks has grown by a factor of four since the war began in October.
Infrastructure challenges: Electricity, fuel, and gas
Many questions arise when discussing the possibility of opening a northern front – such as whether there will really be prolonged power outages if there will be shortages of fuel and cash, or if there may be disruptions in water supply. The answers, of course, depend on the intensity of the war and its expansion, but also on the readiness of national infrastructures.
When talking about the readiness of the electricity sector for a war in the north, it's hard not to mention the statement by Shaul Goldstein, CEO of Noga, which manages Israel's electricity systems: "We are in a bad situation and not ready for a real war. After 72 hours without electricity, it will be impossible to live in Israel."
Goldstein reflected to the public the blackout scenario of the National Emergency Management Authority, which estimates a situation where entire areas will be without electricity for long periods. However, it should be remembered that this is an extreme scenario, with very low chances of materializing. The Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure says they are working tirelessly to reduce the likelihood of the scenario materializing and to prepare for the fastest possible exit from a blackout situation if it does materialize.
Regarding the fuel question, Chen Herzog, an expert on the electricity sector and chief economist at BDO Consulting Israel, says, "The combination of emergency reserves, fuel import ports in the Mediterranean and Red Sea, and refineries in Ashdod and Haifa – creates the ability to supply fuels to the economy even in emergency situations, to ensure fuel availability for the army, air force, and power stations."
