"When the people's rights are violated and their voices are not heard, of course the turnout will be dissatisfaction. We are losing social support day by day due to rising prices, attitude towards girls and women, and restriction of internet." These are the words of Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's ethnic Azerbaijani reformist presidential candidate, while debating his hardline opponent, Said Jalili. He also condemned how Iran treats non-Persians and non-Shias: "This causes citizens to distrust the government." He even condemned how the Islamic Republic represses protesters.
These promising remarks make one ponder, will the election of an ethnic Azerbaijani reformist candidate change how Iran conducts business or not? Tarlan Ahmadov, the head of the Azerbaijani Society of Maine, believes that everything will overall remain the same despite the promising rhetoric.
"Regardless who will be elected, the shift in the political and foreign policy will not be much shifted in a good way," he stressed. "In order to keep this regime, they have to be cruel to their own population, but also to sponsor all of this chaos in the region not only to gather the power but to maintain the power. Of course, if Pezeshkian wins, we might have some ease in terms of the relations with Azerbaijan, Turkey, Qatar and other countries in the Gulf. This foreign policy might be shifted a little way, but not in a huge way, for Khamenei will still call the shots. It is a cruel theological Shia regime."
However, Ahmadov did note: "Him being ethnic Azerbaijani will bring some connections with Azerbaijan and Turkey, especially since he is a Reformist. It is really interesting, but it won't be a tremendous change. The regime is very powerful. They won't ease their relationship with Israel. This is not going to shift overnight. It is difficult to predict who will win, but this won't be a big change. It is good for listening for the ethnic Azerbaijanis, but not many are coming. Many people are not coming for they don't believe in these elections."
Babek Chalabi, a South Azerbaijani dissident based in the US, sees things differently: "Pezeshkian's approach emphasizes dialogue with the West to address the current crisis and demonstrates a thoughtful and balanced stance. It is believed that being aware of the situation, Khamenei has permitted Pezeshkian to address the severe economic and social challenges. It is necessary for him to reintegrate the reformists, who have been marginalized since the 2009 elections, into the political landscape, and so far, he has made progress in this regard. In the recent elections, Khatami, who had previously boycotted elections, extended his support to Pezeshkian."
According to him, "There are various reasons for Khamenei's support, which is to manage the national movements of non-Persian ethnic groups, such as Turks, Kurds, Baluchs, and Arabs. Pezeshkian, who hails from Mahabad, Azerbaijan, a predominantly Kurdish-speaking city, is fluent in Turkish, Kurdish, and English, which could be a valuable asset. Additionally, in recent years, Pezeshkian has publicly advocated for the national rights of non-Persian peoples, including their right to education in their native language."
Chalabi added: "Pezeshkian was among the political figures who advocated for Mahsi Amini's rights during the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement. He also provided support to protesters during the 1999 student protests, which contributed to his growing popularity and attributed to his reputation for honesty and commitment to justice.
Given these factors, it is expected that Azerbaijanis and other non-Persian ethnic groups may be more inclined to lend their support to Iran's Pezeshkian in the upcoming second round."
Chalabi concluded: "Should he emerge victorious; we could expect significant shifts in both Iran's domestic and foreign policies. An election victory for Pezeshkian might pave the way for improved relations between Iran and Turkic nations, such as Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as Gulf Arab countries. This should potentially lead to a decrease in Iran's support for regional groups in Syria, Lebanon, and Hamas. The leadership may have recognized that with the potential election of Trump in the upcoming U.S. elections, it is in their best interest to de-escalate tensions in the region. Conversely, if Jalili were to win, there is a possibility that Iran may align itself more closely with Russia and, to some extent, China."
Rachel Avraham is the CEO of the Dona Gracia Center and the editor of the Economic Peace Center. She is the author of "Women and Jihad: Debating Palestinian Female Suicide Bombings in the American, Israeli and Arab Media."
