Recently, a senior US administration official told CNN that the US is on high alert and actively preparing for a "significant attack" where Iran would target America or Israel in the greater Middle East region in response to Israel's attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus that eliminated senior level commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Some are speculating that the terror attack orchestrated by Iran can occur as early as this week, with some US officials describing the potential of such an attack as "inevitable."
Former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper told Fox News that he believes that Iran will go after Israel directly, but on a limited scale in order to avoid a regional war: "They are going to act. They're going to feel the need to uphold their dignity, to maintain credibility with their proxies throughout the region and to really meet the demands of hardliners, within the theocracy that wants to see something done."
A potential Iranian attack on Israel or one of its allies would represent a major escalation as the Jewish state is in the middle of Operation Iron Swords. On a daily basis, there are terror attacks and rockets are fired into our country. We are actively at war with Gaza and a war can ignite any moment against Hezbollah in the north. Houthis from Yemen have also joined into the fray. And now, Tehran, after sending its proxies after us, could attack Israel directly. However, Israel likely will not be the only victim in this Iranian terror attack and this has great significance for the region as a whole.
Not too long ago, the Azerbaijani media reported that inside the Iranian parliament, Jalal Rashidi Kuch, a radical Iranian MP, proclaimed: "Procrastination, patience, and delay in giving a decisive and similar response to the military attack of the "Zionists" on Iranian territory under any title is equivalent to a heavy blow to the reputation and honor of the great name of Iran. My proposal is to openly and directly target the diplomatic representation of the Zionists in one of the diplomatic centers of the regional countries, preferably in Azerbaijan."
Babek Chalabi, a South Azerbaijani dissident in the US, proclaimed that the idea of Iran waging a terror attack in Azerbaijan in response to IDF action in Syria did not occur in a vacuum: "In Iran, there is a faction keen on instigating a heated conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan. Known primarily as Iranian nationalists, they rely on Persian ultranationalism and often display a condescending attitude towards the cultures and existence of Turks and Arabs, seizing any opportunity to undermine them."
He noted that the statement by MP Jalal Rashidi Kuch is "part of a campaign of hatred against Azerbaijanis. Iran lacks the capability and means to engage in conflict with the Republic of Azerbaijan for a variety of reasons. Iranian leaders, with their exaggerations and noisy debates on diverse issues, aim to distract the public attention. Iran, through its terrorist activities in the region, is increasingly isolating itself, becoming a friendless nation."
Elnur Enveroglu, deputy editor-in-chief of Azernews, stressed, "Iran is targeting Azerbaijan over its rage against Israel and the USA. As you know, Israel hit Damascus, but the issue was brought to the South Caucasus in Azerbaijan, even though the US Embassy is located in Yerevan as well. They could do it in Yerevan too. They could also target the Israeli Embassy in Georgia. So why Azerbaijan?"
"Iran is worried about Azerbaijan getting stronger day by day," he noted. "When Azerbaijan was dealing with the Zangezur Corridor with Armenia, Iran was shocked. Iran immediately reacted that Armenia's territory is Iran's red line. That happened a few years ago. Now, Iran pretends to protect Gaza and Palestine in a fight against Israel. It just pretends that it is going to bomb Israel. But this is baloney. Iran will not launch rockets at Israel. It is just a show-off to show it as a Muslim country, but Iran is really a traitor. They are not worried about NATO forces coming to the region. They are really worried about Azerbaijan, which is opening up the Zangezur Corridor to connect to the Turkic world. That is their real concern."
Dr. Mordechai Kedar, a prominent Middle East scholar, concurred that the Iranians seek to go after Azerbaijan: "They suspect the Azerbaijanis are supporting Israel and helping Israel. They might take advantage of this to attack Azerbaijan. It is psychological hatred on the part of Iran. After the Soviet Union was dismantled, Iran offered Azerbaijan to join Iran. They refused. The fact that the Iranians see they can destroy whatever they like is a problem."
All of this emboldens the Iranians to attack an Israeli target in Azerbaijan. However, the Iranians could also theoretically go after an Israeli or Jewish target elsewhere. In the past, the Iranians attacked the Israeli Embassy and the Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, Argentina. They also attacked a group of Israeli tourists in Burges, Bulgaria.
Speaking at a ceremony in Tehran commemorating those killed in the Damascus consulate attack, Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said: "None of the embassies of the Zionist regime are safe anymore." According to Al Arabiya, Safavi claimed that 27 Israeli embassies have been closed due to concerns about potential Iranian retaliation.
Rachel Avraham is the CEO of the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy and an Israel-based journalist. She is the author of "Women and Jihad: Debating Palestinian Female Suicide Bombings in the American, Israeli and Arab Media."
