Israel's southern neighbor has recently communicated forceful messages to Israel to make it clear that spillover of Palestinian refugees from Gaza to Sinai would jeopardize the peace agreement between the two countries.
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The messages were conveyed through a series of contacts between senior Egyptian officials and Israeli officials, with the content relayed to Israel's entire political-security leadership. Egypt stressed that having refugees crossing over from the Gaza Strip would be a red line.
According to one source, the Egyptian message was that "if even one Palestinian refugee crosses over – the peace agreement will be nullified." Another source said the message was more moderate, stating "Even if one refugee crosses over – the peace agreement will be suspended." Both sources explained the harsh messages Egypt sent as a mix of anger and concern. The anger stems from various statements and position papers discussing the relocation of Palestinians from Gaza as a possible solution to the Strip's problems.
The Intelligence Ministry, headed by Minister Gila Gamliel, recommended this in an official memo it published. In recent weeks there have also been similar statements by ministers and MKs, chief among them Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich who reiterated this on several occasions.
Egypt's concern is over the passage of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from Gaza into Sinai, where they would remain. According to the source, no country would agree to absorb such a large number of Palestinian refugees, and they would become "a permanent Egyptian problem" in the words of one source. This concern stems from two potential scenarios: First, that Palestinians will try to leave Gaza due to the dire humanitarian situation in the strip. Second, that Palestinians will try to flee out of fear of getting caught up in the fighting.
This is also why Egypt made it clear to Israel that it strongly opposes expanding the fighting to Rafah and an Israeli takeover of the Philadelphi Route – which separates the strip from Sinai. Some 1.4 million of Gaza's approx. 2.2 million residents are concentrated around Rafah, and Egypt fears Israeli action in the city would lead to mass flight into Sinai. Since Israel has prevented Palestinians from returning to their homes in northern Gaza, if fighting were to take place there, it would effectively leave them no choice but to flee south.
For Israel this is a real problem: Rafah has a Hamas brigade with four battalions whose defeat is required as part of the goal to defeat the organization's military capability in the strip. Taking control of the Philadelphi Route is also vital in order to cut off the active smuggling axis between Sinai and Gaza.
According to various estimates, there are dozens of smuggling tunnels in the area, some still active today. Hamas used these tunnels to smuggle people and goods, especially weapons (including some used in the October 7 attack and current war). Taking control of the Philadelphi Route would require the IDF to maintain a long-term presence until a permanent solution to the smuggling problem is found.
There are several possible permanent solutions: An ongoing Israeli presence in the area; construction of an underground barrier similar to the Israel-Gaza border fence (which was not breached in the October 7 attack); stationing a multinational force; deploying a reinforced Egyptian force.
Israel will likely seek to combine several solutions in parallel, such as a barrier reinforced by permanent Egyptian or international activity, or a combination thereof.
The chances of having a permanent Israeli presence are slim since it would be seen internationally as re-occupying the strip and effectively requiring Israel to cater to its daily affairs. Israel has already stated it intends to completely disengage from Gaza after the war, not like it had until now with most goods and fuel entering via Israel – and so as not to be accused of choking it, Israel must enable Gazans entry and exit gateways.
Since Gaza has no sea or airports and passages from Israel will be closed, Palestinians will only have the Rafah crossing for the entry and exit of goods and people.
All these moves require close coordination between Israel and Egypt. Since the outset of the war, contacts between the sides have been conducted primarily between Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and Egyptian Intelligence chief Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate. This channel – and parallel ones between the Mossad and IDF and their counterparts in Cairo – continue despite the overt anger of the regime in Cairo at the Israeli government. Egypt also plays a significant role in maintaining contacts regarding another prisoner exchange deal with Hamas.
Egypt has very little sympathy for Hamas, as part of its rivalry with the Muslim Brotherhood movement. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power in a military coup after overthrowing Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood member who ruled Egypt for about a year. However, Egypt maintains close ties with Hamas as part of its efforts to expand its regional influence, but also as insurance against the spillover of Hamas activity into its territory.
Various figures in Israel have estimated in recent months that Egypt has a clear interest that Israel defeat Hamas, in order to strengthen the moderate players in the region against the radical Iran-led axis. They say Israel should act in Cairo to alleviate Egypt's concerns that the Gaza war would harm key Egyptian interests, chiefly the prospect of Palestinian refugees heading south into Sinai.
These things are indeed said in security contacts between the countries. But Egypt is troubled by the public statements of Israeli politicians suggesting the Israeli government does not seek to stabilize the situation in Gaza when the war ends.
Egypt belongs to the axis led by President Joe Biden – which also includes European and Gulf states – that is trying to promote a broad move whereby control of Gaza would be handed over to a reformed Palestinian Authority, and in return, Israel would receive a generous package of benefits including security assistance, economic agreements, and the crown jewel – normalization with Saudi Arabia, and subsequently with other Arab and Muslim countries.
This Egyptian concern is not unfounded. Avoiding dealing with the day-after issue is already hampering IDF activity now and straining relations with the United States. Here too, statements by Israeli politicians carry significant weight in the deterioration of ties. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's reckless remarks to the Wall Street Journal Sunday were not only a show of ingratitude, but a basic lack of understanding of Israel's national interests during wartime.
Under normal circumstances Netanyahu would have prevented such statements, even firing ministers daring to thus harm the state's interests. But he is currently guided by his own political interest, with the inevitable result being sabotage of Israel's foreign relations.
The explicit Egyptian threat should be seen as a warning sign: Israel is playing with fire and jeopardizing the first peace agreement it signed, which is a cornerstone of its strength and relations with the entire Arab world.
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