Tuesday's meeting between the families of the kidnapped and the War Cabinet was difficult. The prime minister and his ministers had no good answers to the questions posed to them. They couldn't even say that the strategy they are leading would guarantee the release of their loved ones.
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The truth must be said: Some 60 days into the war have gone by, but this issue is still in limbo. The original plan stalled after Hamas did not release all the women and children in its hands, and there is no new plan. This means that 137 Israelis are held captive in Gaza, their lives hanging in the balance. The promise that they will return home currently relies more on words and less on actions.
Video: Weapons found at Shifa Hospital / Credit: X/@IDF
Israel lost precious time until all those tasked with dealing with the kidnapped were appointed. Then it lost more time until serious negotiations with Hamas commenced (mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar). After that, it lost additional time trying to improve the ceasefire formula. Now, it is losing time again, thinking that military pressure will force Hamas to make concessions and compromises.
While this argument is legitimate it does not have much to substantiate it. In fact, the fighting only had minimal impact on the drafting of the ceasefire the last time around and only prolonged the captivity for those who ultimately got released.
Anyone exposed to the testimonies of the released captives about what they went through there or listened to the spokesperson of the US State Department, who it was likely that Hamas did not release the last of the women because it wanted prevent them from revealing the sexual abuse, can understand the significance of every additional moment in captivity, not to mention the threat to life: injuries or illnesses that are untreated – either from Hamas or as a result of an Israeli attack.
There is no doubt that Hamas did not abide by the previous agreement. There is also no doubt that its leader Yahya Sinwar is a cunning adversary. There was no need for the October 7 attack and its results to know this: Even before that, he refused to release any information about the Israelis and soldiers he held.
Experts in negotiation believe that Sinwar understands only power. If Israel had shown determination last Friday, given up on the women (or some of them), and agreed to a new plan that included both men and bodies, it would have been left with nothing, especially without the 15 women held in Gaza (plus two children from the Bibas family).
Sinwar tricked us again, changed the conditions again, and then set demands and conditions that we couldn't meet to blow up the deal again, all while profiting from the precious time of the ceasefire that serves him.
According to these experts, Hamas now needs to stew in its own juices, see that Israel is determined, that we are also willing to go all the way. And above all, it must pay a price: in the territory he is losing, in the people who die for it, in the suffering Gaza and its residents have been enduring because of its actions. They agree that it may endanger the kidnapped, but in their view, it increases the chance that more kidnapped will return home safely.
The opposing argument is also strong. Given the fact that Israel is negotiating with the devil, we need to bring back everyone possible whenever possible, with the thought that tomorrow such a prospect might no longer be possible.The lives of the kidnapped women are important, but the lives of the men and soldiers kidnapped are equally important. And most importantly: Waiting is a gamble that may turn out to be a tragic mistake with no way to correct it.
Rightly or wrongly, Israel prefers the tough way. It's controversial, but legitimate, as long as the kidnapped remain the top priority. Since they were abandoned by the state on Black Saturday, the state has a duty not to abandon them again.
Even if it's a tactic of negotiation, the strategic goal of bringing back all the kidnapped must be preserved: It is no less important than the parallel goal of weakening Hamas's rule in Gaza. Without it, Israel cannot look at itself and its citizens in the eyes.
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