Some three weeks after Hamas' murderous onslaught from the Gaza Strip, an order came from Tehran to all its terror proxies in the Middle East: continue trying to target Israel with fire to demonstrate Iran's support for "resistance," but remain below the threshold of war.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
This directive has been meticulously followed by all the components of the evil axis so far. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched drones and ballistic missiles toward Israel, which were intercepted; pro-Iranian militias have attacked US bases in Syria and Iraq, facing retaliatory strikes by F-16 fighter jets; terror elements associated with Iran and Hezbollah in southern Syria's Golan Heights have fired into Israeli territory and have been targeted in response.
Video: IDF troops raid Gaza Strip overnight Wednesday / Credit: IDF Spokesperson Unit
In southern Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to launch katyusha rockets at IDF positions and anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli aircraft, causing damage. In an unprecedented move, the organization requested UNIFIL personnel to assist in retrieving the bodies of their slain fighters who were killed by Israeli airstrikes near the border, indicating their concern about further casualties. Despite Israel's strong protest, UNIFIL has been cooperating with this request.
Since October 7, Hassan Nasrallah has not been seen in public, except for a joint photo with senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders, and he has not delivered a speech as is customary. His spokespeople claim he is dedicating all his time to monitoring developments.
As the situation becomes more tense, one can understand the dilemma. If Nasrallah receives an order from Tehran to join the conflict, he will do so. However, for now, he carries the heavy responsibility for what is happening in Lebanon. Tens of thousands of residents have fled their villages in the south; the Lebanese economy is in a dire state, many countries are evacuating their citizens, and all political forces in the country are pressuring him not to join the war in order to prevent the country's total destruction.
But it is not certain that his benefactors in Tehran have settled on what their next move is. The Iranian foreign minister has declared they do not want to be dragged into a regional war, but added they cannot rule out such a scenario and opening new fronts "if there is an escalation in Gaza." In other words, a broad ground invasion by the IDF.
Regional war, one that could escalate to a global war, is one of three scenarios presented by Kamal Kharrazi, former Iranian Foreign Minister and advisor to the Supreme Leader, at a leading Iranian foreign relations research institute. The other two scenarios are Hamas and Israel continuing to fight "until one of them is eliminated," and a protracted war in Gaza where each side continues to receive support, assistance, and backing from external actors.
For now, it appears that the Iranians are leaning toward the third scenario: continued support for Hamas as Hezbollah "harasses" Israel in the north, within the confines of a "limited regional flare-up," without getting into a full-scale confrontation. Reports of Iran attempting to smuggle precise weapons to Hezbollah in Syria, transported on civilian aircraft landing in Syria, may reinforce this interpretation. Essentially, it signifies Tehran and its proxies' willingness to "fight" until the last Hamas terrorist is eliminated.
In the Sunni axis opposed to the Iranian axis, all Muslim countries last week supported the proposal to immediately stop Israel's attacks in Gaza, without mentioning the terrible massacre in the border region.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, stood out, called Israel "insane" for "slaughtering Gaza's residents" and canceling his visit to Israel. Anyone who believed until now that Erdogan, an extremist Muslim leader and supporter of the "Muslim Brotherhood," had changed his attitude and become a friend of Israel should rethink this.
However, the Egyptians, Jordanians, and Saudis also voted in favor of the decision, and there's no need to be surprised. In Cairo and Amman, they despise Hamas, but they are very concerned that an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza will provoke protests and riots at home, undermining internal stability. This is the reason for the outspokenness of the Jordanian Queen Rania, who denied the killing of infants in the border settlements. It's also the reason for the seemingly neutral position of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, who still suffers from post-traumatic stress due to the attacks by ISIS, the "Muslim Brothers," and extreme Islamism in Cairo and Sinai.
In Riyadh, there is also restraint. In the social networks of the Arab world, they criticize Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and claim that even though he defended Israel, he didn't actually backtrack on his willingness to normalize relations with Jerusalem in exchange for a defense pact with the US, and he is just waiting for the end of the war in Gaza.
A senior Western official who is in close contact with decision-makers in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia told me that none of them, not even Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, will shed a tear if Hamas is wiped off the map. The problem, he says, is that all four leaders have been disappointed in the past by Israel's repeated failure to completely remove the threat of Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in the south. Now they won't say a word until Israel proves that it can truly do what it promised – to win.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
